https://github.com/boydorr/gavi_vax_proj

https://github.com/boydorr/gavi_vax_proj

Science Score: 13.0%

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Last synced: 10 months ago · JSON representation

Repository

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  • Host: GitHub
  • Owner: boydorr
  • Language: R
  • Default Branch: main
  • Size: 7.87 MB
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Created over 2 years ago · Last pushed about 2 years ago
Metadata Files
Readme

README.md

Sense checks for Gavi human rabies vaccine projections

  1. Import projected country population and associated data - project_bites.R

Data (all in data folder) compiled for Gavi VIS (preppeddatafinal.csv): - world bank human population projections (2018 onwards) - Human Dog Ratios (exposure risk) - Urban/ rural populations (relates to dog ownership & PEP access) - Human development index, HDI (relates to PEP access) - Dog vaccination coverage (exposure risk) Revised HDR to consider religion (% muslim data sourced)

  1. Use functions to project bites (rabid & healthy & PEP) - R/HelperFun.R

    Incorporate vial sharing calculations: free; decentralized & vial size

  2. Project over time horizon for 2 scenarios:

    • SQ vs free PEP with improved access (decentralization) using IPC regimen
    • outputs in outputs folder
    • review comparison figures across countries & HDI

Key assumptions & concerns

% increase PEP seeking with Gavi support & saturation
- free PEP increases demand (saturating curve - but may increase further in Asian settings - decentralization increases access (exponential curve - starts lower in SSA based on HDI)

Vial size = 1 ml - but little change with 0.5mL vials, though increased resilience in settings prone to surges Full compliance

Identified sensitivities

  • Human dog ratio is more variable than country estimates
  • Expect +/- 20% per annum based on bite variability in data
  • Assumptions on health seeking changes with improved access likely to differ considerably

Owner

  • Name: Boyd Orr
  • Login: boydorr
  • Kind: organization
  • Location: Glasgow, UK

Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, University of Glasgow

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