https://github.com/cboettig/talks-2019-agu
:microphone: My talk in the Ecological Forecasting section at American Geophysical Union, 2019, in SF
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:microphone: My talk in the Ecological Forecasting section at American Geophysical Union, 2019, in SF
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README.md
AGU 2019 Talk
Theoretical Limits to Forecasting in Ecological Systems (And What to Do About It)
- Carl Boettiger
- 5:45 - 6pm, Weds Dec 11th
- Link to entry in Meeting Program
Abstract ID: 541411
Abstract Title: Theoretical Limits to Forecasting in Ecological Systems (And What to Do About It)
Final Paper Number: B34C-08
Presentation Type: Oral
Session Date and Time: Wednesday, 11 December 2019; 16:00 - 18:00
Presentation Length: 17:45 - 18:00
Session Number and Title: B34C: Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System I
Location: Moscone West; 3001, L3
Abstract
Ecological Forecasting is constrained by our ability to accurately model complex phenomena. I explore our capacity to accurately forecast sudden shifts in common ecological and environmental climate models that may contain tipping points or "ghost attractors." I illustrate how black-box modeling and forecasting approaches, including common machine learning algorithms, can fail dramatically in these scenarios. I further illustrate that even access to the underlying process model is not sufficient to predict the tipping point. In the second phase of this work, I present possible strategies for dealing with the immense uncertainty created by these dynamics. Drawing on methods of decision theory, I illustrate how an adaptive manager can avoid catastrophic outcomes despite limited forecast potential of such scenarios.
Session
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm19/meetingapp.cgi/Session/87281
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- Name: Carl Boettiger
- Login: cboettig
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- Company: UC Berkeley
- Website: http://carlboettiger.info
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