gdoclimatetoolsuiteads2032loads

This repository houses the raw data and processing scripts to create the hourly load time series by Balancing Authority for the GDO Climate Toolsuite project. Data are scaled to match the 2032 annual total loads data by BA from the WECC 2032 Anchor Data Set (ADS). 2032 ADS loads were shared by Osten on 11-Aug 2025. The future loads for different weather years are based on the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model.

Input Files

The ADS data needed to recreate this process is stored in the data directory. Because of data volume constraints I didn't push the raw TELL multilayer perceptron (MLP) model output to this directory so the workflow cannot be immediately reproduced. This data is readily available though if we want to package this workflow in a fully reproducible manner.

Output Files

The output of this processing is stored in the TELL_Loads subdirectory with the filenames "TELLLoads2032BasedonYYYYWeather.csv".

Citations

Any use of this data in a publication, presentation, or report should use the following citations. Please contact Casey Burleyson (casey.burleyson@pnnl.gov) prior to any reuse of the data.

Citation for the TELL model

McGrath et al., (2022). tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(79), 4472, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.04472

Citation for the underlying weather data

Burleyson, C., Thurber, T., & Vernon, C. (2023). Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1960530

Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756

Notes

1) Loads in CISO, IPCO, NEVP, and PACE are modeled as a whole in TELL but are separated in GridView. To create the data for these BAs I used the whole load simulated by TELL and distributed it to the subregions within the BA using the annual total load in each subregion to portion out the TELL loads. This means those BAs will have the same hour-to-hour variability (governed by the overarching BA in TELL) but different magnitudes. 2) The BAs in Canada (AESO and BCHA) and Mexico (CFE) are not modeled by TELL. The time-series for those BAs are the same as those in the original GridView file. Likewise, there are no values for THMalin, THMead, and TH_PV. 3) The WECC 2032 ADS is formatted for a leap year (i.e., it has 8784 hourly load values). Because the historical weather data input into TELL only have 8760 hourly values in non leap years this the final day of loads is "missing" in the output files in non leap years. 4) The underlying MLP models in the version of TELL used in this analysis were trained on EIA-930 load data from 2016-2018. This means that the base hourly load profiles they generate (before scaling) reflect the load that would have occurred had weather from a historical year impacted the grid as it existed in 2016-2019. We can update the underlying MLP models to be trained on more recent data if that is important for this project.

BAs in the WECC

🟢 = Matched with no issue
🟡 = Caution advised
🔴 = No match

| GV BA | TELL BA | Matched? | Notes | | :-: | :-: | :-: | :-: | | AESO | - | 🔴 | BA is in Canada | | AVA | AVA | 🟢 | - | | AZPS | AZPS | 🟢 | - | | BANC | BANC | 🟢 | - | | BCHA | - | 🔴 | BA is in Canada | | BPAT | BPAT | 🟢 | - | | CFE | - | 🔴 | BA is in Mexico | | CHPD| CHPD| 🟢 | - | | CIPB | CISO | 🟡 | Subregion of CISO | | CIPV | CISO | 🟡 | Subregion of CISO | | CISC | CISO | 🟡 | Subregion of CISO | | CISD | CISO | 🟡 | Subregion of CISO | | DOPD | DOPD | 🟢 | - | | EPE | EPE | 🟢 | - | | GCPD | GCPD | 🟢 | - | | IID | IID | 🟢 | - | | IPFE | IPCO | 🟡 | Subregion of IPCO | | IPMV | IPCO | 🟡 | Subregion of IPCO | | IPTV | IPCO | 🟡 | Subregion of IPCO | | LDWP | LDWP | 🟢 | - | | NEVP | NEVP | 🟡 | Subregion of NEVP | | NWMT | MWMT | 🟢 | - | | PACW | PACW | 🟢 | - | | PAID | PACE | 🟡 | Subregion of PACE | | PAUT | PACE | 🟡 | Subregion of PACE | | PAWY | PACE | 🟡 | Subregion of PACE | | PGE | PGE | 🟢 | - | | PNM | PNM | 🟢 | - | | PSCO | PSCO | 🟢 | - | | PSEI | PSEI | 🟢 | - | | SCL | SCL | 🟢 | - | | SPCC | NEVP | 🟡 | Subregion of NEVP | | SRP | SRP | 🟢 | - | | TEPC | TEPC | 🟢 | - | | TH Malin | - | 🔴 | No match and no loads in original GridView data | | TH Mead | - | 🔴 | No match and no loads in original GridView data | | TH PV | - | 🔴 | No match and no loads in original GridView data | | TIDC | TIDC | 🟢 | - | | TPWR | TPWR | 🟢 | - | | VEA | CISO | 🟡 | Subregion of CISO | | WACM | WACM | 🟢 | - | | WALC | WALC | 🟢 | - | | WAUW | WAUW | 🟢 | - |