nuclearheatwaveloads2024

This repository houses the raw data and processing scripts to create the hourly load time series by Balancing Authority for the nuclear resilience project. Data are scaled to match the 2025 annual total loads data by BA. The future loads for different weather years are based on the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model.

Input Files

The input data needed to recreate this process is stored in the data directory.

Output Files

The output of this processing is stored in the data directory. Data for the EIC uses the filename format: "TELLEICLoads2025BasedonYYYY_Weather.csv"

Notes

1) All times from the weather forcing and the TELL model are in Universal Time Convention (UTC). You will need to post-process them to the eastern time-zone as needed. 2) In the EIC loads in FMPP, FPL, MISO, PJM, SOCO, SWPP, and TVA are modeled as a whole in TELL but are separated in GridView. To create the data for these BAs I used the whole load simulated by TELL and distributed it to the subregions within the BA using the annual total load in each subregion to portion out the TELL loads. Those subregions will have the same hour-to-hour variability, but different magnitudes depending on their total load fractions. I used the same technique to subdivide the loads as I did in the original WECC data workflow used for the NTP project. 2) TELL does not model BAs in Canada or Mexico. For BAs in those countries (IESO, TE, NB, NS, CORNWALL, and NF) I used the raw time series from the EIC Gridview file. 3) There are some regions that have no mapping to BAs modeled by TELL. For those regions I used the raw time series from the EIC Gridview file. Those BAs are SETH, SERU, SEHA, IPP-REL, MH, SPC, OSC, PS, MPW, GLH, CPLW, YAD, WECC, and WBDC-WECC. Many of these regions have 0 or minimal hourly loads in the GridView file.

Mapping Files

Two files describing the BA mapping between TELL and Gridview are provided in the data directory. The file 'BAMapping.xlsx' shows how the names match up and which BAs have subregions. The file 'FinalEICBACrosscheck.xlsx' goes through the EIC Gridview file that was passed to me column-by-column to make sure that each region expected in the file is accounted for in my technique using the TELL model.

Citations

Any use of this data in a publication, presentation, or report should use the following citations. Please contact Casey Burleyson (casey.burleyson@pnnl.gov) prior to any reuse of the data.

Citation for the TELL model

McGrath et al., (2022). tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(79), 4472, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.04472

Citation for the underlying weather data

Burleyson, C., Thurber, T., & Vernon, C. (2023). Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1960530

Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756