forestatrisk

forestatrisk: a Python package for modelling and forecasting deforestation in the tropics - Published in JOSS (2021)

https://github.com/ghislainv/forestatrisk

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📦🐍 Python package to model and forecast the risk of deforestation

README.rst

..
   # ==============================================================================
   # author          :Ghislain Vieilledent
   # email           :ghislain.vieilledent@cirad.fr
   # web             :https://ecology.ghislainv.fr
   # license         :GPLv3
   # ==============================================================================

.. image:: https://ecology.ghislainv.fr/forestatrisk/_static/logo-far.svg
   :align: right
   :target: https://ecology.ghislainv.fr/forestatrisk
   :alt: Logo forestatrisk
   :width: 140px

``forestatrisk`` Python package
*******************************


|Python version| |PyPI version| |GitHub Actions| |License| |Zenodo| |JOSS|


Overview
========

The ``forestatrisk`` Python package can be used to **model** the
tropical deforestation spatially, **predict** the spatial risk of
deforestation, and **forecast** the future forest cover in the
tropics. It provides functions to estimate the spatial probability of
deforestation as a function of various spatial explanatory variables.

Spatial explanatory variables can be derived from topography
(altitude, slope, and aspect), accessibility (distance to roads,
towns, and forest edge), deforestation history (distance to previous
deforestation), or land conservation status (eg. protected area) for
example.

.. image:: https://ecology.ghislainv.fr/forestatrisk/_static/banner_forestatrisk.png
   :align: center
   :target: https://ecology.ghislainv.fr/forestatrisk
   :alt: banner_forestatrisk

Scientific publication
======================

**Vieilledent G.** 2021. ``forestatrisk``: a Python package for
modelling and forecasting deforestation in the tropics.
*Journal of Open Source Software*. 6(59): 2975.
[doi: `10.21105/joss.02975 `__]. |pdf|
	   
Statement of Need
=================

Spatial modelling of the deforestation allows identifying the main
factors determining the spatial risk of deforestation and quantifying
their relative effects. Forecasting forest cover change is paramount
as it allows anticipating the consequences of deforestation (in terms
of carbon emissions or biodiversity loss) under various technological,
political and socio-economic scenarios, and informs decision makers
accordingly. Because both biodiversity and carbon vary greatly in
space, it is necessary to provide spatial forecasts of forest cover
change to properly quantify biodiversity loss and carbon emissions
associated with future deforestation.

The ``forestatrisk`` Python package can be used to model the tropical
deforestation spatially, predict the spatial risk of deforestation,
and forecast the future forest cover in the tropics. The spatial data
used to model deforestation come from georeferenced raster files,
which can be very large (several gigabytes). The functions available
in the ``forestatrisk`` package process large rasters by blocks of
data, making calculations fast and efficient. This allows
deforestation to be modeled over large geographic areas (e.g. at the
scale of a country) and at high spatial resolution
(eg. ≤ 30 m). The ``forestatrisk`` package offers the possibility
of using logistic regression with auto-correlated spatial random
effects to model the deforestation process. The spatial random effects
make possible to structure the residual spatial variability of the
deforestation process, not explained by the variables of the model and
often very large. In addition to these new features, the
``forestatrisk`` Python package is open source (GPLv3 license),
cross-platform, scriptable (via Python), user-friendly (functions
provided with full documentation and examples), and easily extendable
(with additional statistical models for example). The ``forestatrisk``
Python package has been used to model deforestation and predict future
forest cover by 2100 across the humid tropics
(``__).

Installation
============

You will need several dependencies to run the ``forestatrisk`` Python
package. The best way to install the package is to create a Python
virtual environment, either through ``conda`` (recommended) or ``virtualenv``.

Using ``virtualenv``
++++++++++++++++++++

The easiest way to install the ``forestatrisk`` Python package is via `pip `_ in the *OSGeo4W Shell* for Windows or in a virtual environment for Linux.

For Linux, create and activate a virtual environment before installing ``geefcc`` with ``pip``:

.. code-block:: shell

   cd ~
   # Create a directory for virtual environments
   mkdir venvs
   # Create the virtual environment with venv
   python3 -m venv ~/venvs/venv-geefcc
   # Activate (start) the virtual environment
   source ~/venvs/venv-geefcc/bin/activate

Install Python dependencies and ``forestatrisk`` in the *OSGeo4W Shell* or in the newly created virtual environment:
   
.. code-block:: shell
   
   # Upgrade pip, setuptools, and wheel
   python3 -m pip install --upgrade pip setuptools wheel
   # Install numpy
   python3 -m numpy
   # Install gdal Python bindings (the correct version)
   python3 -m pip install gdal==$(gdal-config --version)
   # Install forestatrisk. This will install all other dependencies
   python3 -m pip install forestatrisk

If you want to install the development version of ``forestatrisk``, replace the last line with:

.. code-block:: shell

   python3 -m pip install https://github.com/ghislainv/forestatrisk/archive/master.zip

To deactivate and delete the virtual environment:

.. code-block:: shell
		
   deactivate
   rm -R ~/venvs/venv-forestatrisk # Just remove the repository

In case of problem while installing GDAL Python bindings, try the following command:

.. code-block:: shell
		
   python3 -m pip install --no-cache-dir --force-reinstall gdal==$(gdal-config --version)


Using ``conda``
+++++++++++++++

You first need to have ``miniconda3`` installed (see `here
`__).

Then, create a conda environment (details `here
`__)
and install the ``forestatrisk`` package with the following commands:

.. code-block:: shell
		
   conda create --name conda-far -c conda-forge python gdal numpy matplotlib pandas patsy pip statsmodels earthengine-api --yes
   conda activate conda-far
   pip install pywdpa scikit-learn # Packages not available with conda
   pip install forestatrisk # For PyPI version
   # pip install https://github.com/ghislainv/forestatrisk/archive/master.zip # For GitHub dev version
   # conda install -c conda-forge python-dotenv --yes  # Additional libraries if needed

To deactivate and delete the conda environment:

.. code-block:: shell
		
   conda deactivate
   conda env remove --name conda-far

Installation testing
++++++++++++++++++++

You can test that the package has been correctly installed using the
command ``forestatrisk`` in a terminal:

.. code-block:: shell

  forestatrisk

This should return a short description of the ``forestatrisk`` package
and the version number:

.. code-block:: shell

  # forestatrisk: modelling and forecasting deforestation in the tropics.
  # https://ecology.ghislainv.fr/forestatrisk/
  # forestatrisk version x.x.

You can also test the package following the `Get
started
`__
tutorial.
   
Main functionalities
====================

Sample
++++++

Function ``.sample()`` sample observations points from a forest cover
change map. The sample is balanced and stratified between deforested
and non-deforested pixels. The function also retrieves information
from explanatory variables for each sampled point. Sampling is done by
block to allow computation on large study areas (e.g. country or
continental scale) with a high spatial resolution (e.g. 30m).

Model
+++++

Function ``.model_binomial_iCAR()`` can be used to fit the
deforestation model. A linear Binomial logistic regression model is
used in this case. The model includes an intrinsic Conditional
Autoregressive (iCAR) process to account for the spatial
autocorrelation of the observations. Parameter inference is done in a
hierarchical Bayesian framework. The function calls a Gibbs sampler
with a Metropolis algorithm written in pure C code to reduce
computation time.

Other models (such as a simple GLM or a Random Forest model) can also
be used.

Predict and project
+++++++++++++++++++

Function ``.predict()`` allows predicting the deforestation
probability on the whole study area using the deforestation model
fitted with ``.model_*()`` functions. The prediction is done by block
to allow the computation on large study areas (e.g. country or
continental scale) with a high spatial resolution (e.g. 30m).

Function ``.deforest()`` predicts the future forest cover map based on a
raster of probability of deforestation (rescaled from 1 to 65535),
which is obtained from function ``.predict()``, and an area (in
hectares) to be deforested.

Validate
++++++++

A set of functions (eg. ``.cross_validation()`` or
``.map_accuracy()``\ ) is also provided to perform model and map
validation.

Contributing
============

The ``forestatrisk`` Python package is Open Source and released under
the `GNU GPL version 3 license
`__. Anybody
who is interested can contribute to the package development following
our `Community guidelines
`__. Every
contributor must agree to follow the project's `Code of conduct
`__.


.. |Python version| image:: https://img.shields.io/pypi/pyversions/forestatrisk?logo=python&logoColor=ffd43b&color=306998
   :target: https://pypi.org/project/forestatrisk
   :alt: Python version

.. |PyPI version| image:: https://img.shields.io/pypi/v/forestatrisk
   :target: https://pypi.org/project/forestatrisk
   :alt: PyPI version

.. |GitHub Actions| image:: https://github.com/ghislainv/forestatrisk/workflows/PyPkg/badge.svg
   :target: https://github.com/ghislainv/forestatrisk/actions
   :alt: GitHub Actions
	 
.. |License| image:: https://img.shields.io/badge/licence-GPLv3-8f10cb.svg
   :target: https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-3.0.html
   :alt: License GPLv3	 

.. |Zenodo| image:: https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.996337.svg
   :target: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.996337
   :alt: Zenodo

.. |JOSS| image:: https://joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21105/joss.02975/status.svg
   :target: https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.02975
   :alt: JOSS

.. |pdf| image:: https://ecology.ghislainv.fr/forestatrisk/_static/logo-pdf.png
   :target: https://www.theoj.org/joss-papers/joss.02975/10.21105.joss.02975.pdf
   :alt: pdf

Owner

JOSS Publication

forestatrisk: a Python package for modelling and forecasting deforestation in the tropics

Published

March 02, 2021

DOI

10.21105/joss.02975

Volume 6, Issue 59, Page 2975

Authors

Ghislain Vieilledent
CIRAD, UMR AMAP, F--34398 Montpellier, France, CIRAD, Forêts et Sociétés, F--34398 Montpellier, France., AMAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier, France., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), I--21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.

Editor

Katy Barnhart

Tags

Python land use change spatial modelling spatial analysis forecasting spatial autocorrelation tropical forests roads protected areas biodiversity scenario ipbes co2 emissions ipcc

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  "keywords": "python, land use change, spatial modelling, spatial analysis, forecasting, spatial autocorrelation, tropical forests, roads, protected areas, biodiversity scenarios, IPBES, CO2 emissions, IPCC, deforestation risk",
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