famine-prediction
an open source model for predicting famine
Science Score: 67.0%
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Repository
an open source model for predicting famine
Basic Info
- Host: GitHub
- Owner: aristotle-tek
- License: mit
- Language: Jupyter Notebook
- Default Branch: main
- Size: 2.8 MB
Statistics
- Stars: 0
- Watchers: 1
- Forks: 0
- Open Issues: 0
- Releases: 1
Metadata Files
README.md
Famine Prediction open source models
An open-source repository for modeling famine.
Warning! - for now there are no experts involved, just some curiosity and a desire to make the data and models more transparent. The current focus is to model the famine in Sudan.
Objectives
1. Resource Scarcity Model
We replicate (with some minor changes) the famine model described in the following Clingendael Institute reports (but we are of course responsible for any errors!):
Sudan: From hunger to death 2024-05-24, Dr. Timmo Gaasbeek.
From Catastrophe to Famine: Immediate action needed in Sudan to contain mass starvation 2024-02-08. Anette Hoffmann.
2. Price Models
We also provide code for estimating famine alerts based on food price changes using the methodology described in
Baquedano, F. G. (2015). Developing an indicator of price anomalies as an early warning tool: A compound growth approach. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).
Resource Scarcity Model - Start here
We provide several Jupyter notebooks to walk through the main calculations:
Walkthrough of calculating available calories (2023-2024)
Or
For a more narrative overview, see here.Fundamentals of caloric deficit, BMI change, and excess mortality
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Offers an overview of basic calculations related to caloric deficits, changes in BMI, and corresponding effects on excess mortality.
For a more narrative overview, see a discussion here.Resource scarcity model elements Or
Explains the assumptions on initial BMI distrubtion and how calories are distributed across the population, and the list of updates calculated for each month, and
For a more narrative overview, see a discussion here.Run the resource scarcity model and generate plots
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Executes a single run of the resource scarcity model and generates output plots.Simple sensitivity analysis of the model
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Evaluate the relative importance of five inputs using Sobol indices.
For a narrative overview, see here.
Price Anomaly Early Warning Model - Start here
Walkthrough of the price anomaly model based on Baquedano
Or
Modeling Literature
In addition to the notebooks, there are references and resources on approaches to modeling in the literature folder.
Contributing
Please reach out with suggestions for improvement, or submit a pull request!
License
This project is licensed under the MIT License.
Owner
- Name: Andrew Peterson
- Login: aristotle-tek
- Kind: user
- Location: Poitiers/ Nantes
- Company: University of Poitiers
- Website: https://elenchos.ai
- Twitter: andrew_nyu
- Repositories: 25
- Profile: https://github.com/aristotle-tek
Data Scientist at Elenchos.ai. University of Poitiers.
Citation (CITATION.cff)
cff-version: 1.2.0
message: "If you use this software, please cite it using the following metadata."
title: "Famine Prediction Open Source Models"
version: "1.0.0"
doi: "10.5281/zenodo.15366709"
date-released: 2025-05-08
authors:
- name: Andrew J. Peterson
orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0811-3515
affiliation: University of Poitiers
license: MIT
repository-code: https://github.com/aristotle-tek/famine-prediction
keywords:
- famine
- prediction
- food security
- data science
GitHub Events
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- Push event: 24
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