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forecastbench

A dynamic forecasting benchmark for LLMs

https://github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench

Science Score: 36.0%

This score indicates how likely this project is to be science-related based on various indicators:

  • ○
    CITATION.cff file
  • ✓
    codemeta.json file
    Found codemeta.json file
  • ✓
    .zenodo.json file
    Found .zenodo.json file
  • ○
    DOI references
  • ✓
    Academic publication links
    Links to: arxiv.org
  • ○
    Academic email domains
  • ○
    Institutional organization owner
  • ○
    JOSS paper metadata
  • ○
    Scientific vocabulary similarity
    Low similarity (11.5%) to scientific vocabulary
Last synced: 10 months ago · JSON representation

Repository

A dynamic forecasting benchmark for LLMs

Basic Info
  • Host: GitHub
  • Owner: forecastingresearch
  • License: mit
  • Language: Python
  • Default Branch: main
  • Homepage: https://www.forecastbench.org
  • Size: 1.62 MB
Statistics
  • Stars: 27
  • Watchers: 5
  • Forks: 3
  • Open Issues: 31
  • Releases: 0
Created over 2 years ago · Last pushed 10 months ago
Metadata Files
Readme License Citation

README.md

ForecastBench

ICLR 2025 arXiv:2409.19839

A dynamic, continuously-updated benchmark to evaluate LLM forecasting capabilities. More at www.forecastbench.org.

Datasets

Leaderboards and datasets are updated nightly and available at github.com/forecastingresearch/forecastbench-datasets.

Participate in the benchmark

Instructions for how to submit your model to the benchmark can be found here: How-to-submit-to-ForecastBench.

Wiki

Dig into the details of ForecastBench on the wiki.

Citation

bibtex @inproceedings{karger2025forecastbench, title={ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities}, author={Ezra Karger and Houtan Bastani and Chen Yueh-Han and Zachary Jacobs and Danny Halawi and Fred Zhang and Philip E. Tetlock}, year={2025}, booktitle={International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)}, url={https://iclr.cc/virtual/2025/poster/28507} }

Getting started for devs

Local setup

  1. git clone --recurse-submodules <repo-url>.git
  2. cd forecastbench
  3. cp variables.example.mk variables.mk and set the values accordingly
  4. Setup your Python virtual environment
    1. make setup-python-env
    2. source .venv/bin/activate

Run GCP Cloud Functions locally

  1. cd directory/containing/cloud/function
  2. eval $(cat path/to/variables.mk | xargs) python main.py

Contributions

Before creating a pull request: * run make lint and fix any errors and warnings * ensure code has been deployed to Google Cloud Platform and tested (only for our devs, for others, we're happy you're contributing and we'll test this on our end). * fork the repo * reference the issue number (if one exists) in the commit message * push to the fork on a branch other than main * create a pull request

Owner

  • Name: forecastingresearch
  • Login: forecastingresearch
  • Kind: organization

GitHub Events

Total
  • Issues event: 27
  • Watch event: 21
  • Delete event: 2
  • Issue comment event: 7
  • Push event: 80
  • Pull request event: 4
  • Gollum event: 84
  • Fork event: 2
  • Create event: 3
Last Year
  • Issues event: 27
  • Watch event: 21
  • Delete event: 2
  • Issue comment event: 7
  • Push event: 80
  • Pull request event: 4
  • Gollum event: 84
  • Fork event: 2
  • Create event: 3

Issues and Pull Requests

Last synced: 10 months ago

All Time
  • Total issues: 15
  • Total pull requests: 2
  • Average time to close issues: 3 months
  • Average time to close pull requests: about 5 hours
  • Total issue authors: 2
  • Total pull request authors: 1
  • Average comments per issue: 0.13
  • Average comments per pull request: 0.0
  • Merged pull requests: 1
  • Bot issues: 0
  • Bot pull requests: 0
Past Year
  • Issues: 15
  • Pull requests: 2
  • Average time to close issues: 3 months
  • Average time to close pull requests: about 5 hours
  • Issue authors: 2
  • Pull request authors: 1
  • Average comments per issue: 0.13
  • Average comments per pull request: 0.0
  • Merged pull requests: 1
  • Bot issues: 0
  • Bot pull requests: 0
View more stats
Top Authors
Issue Authors
  • houtanb (25)
  • connachermurphy (1)
Pull Request Authors
  • zjac0bs (2)
Top Labels
Issue Labels
data (6) leaderboard (5) bug (4) resolution (3) infrastructure (3) invalid (2) baseline (1) website (1) question curation (1) naive forecaster (1) enhancement (1)
Pull Request Labels

Dependencies

.github/workflows/makefile.yml actions
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pyproject.toml pypi
requirements.txt pypi
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src/leaderboard/requirements.txt pypi
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src/metadata/tag_questions/requirements.txt pypi
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src/metadata/validate_questions/requirements.txt pypi
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src/nightly_update_workflow/worker/requirements.txt pypi
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src/curate_questions/create_question_set/requirements.txt pypi
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