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TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM)

Purpose of the model

The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) is being developed at UCC to inform future possible decarbonisation pathways for the Irish energy system. We give it information on the Irish energy system as it is today, a set of constraints, including on greenhouse-gas emissions, and the best available projections for what the future technology and fuel options and demands will be.

It then finds the lowest-cost pathway to re-architect and restructure Ireland’s entire energy system, for electricity, transport, industry, residential and commercial, and novel fuels like hydrogen and bioenergy, to reduce emissions to meet the target. It accounts for all the linkages in the system; rather than transform it one piece at a time, it transforms the entire system, accounting for all the sector couplings and trade-offs, even between distant parts of the system.

Rather than offering a single prescriptive plan, the model helps structure our discussions of the trade-offs and uncertainties; and helps us develop meaningful, consistent narratives of energy transformation, while considering a huge range of possible futures.

Alternatively, TIM can be used to assess the implications of certain policies, namely regulatory or technology target-setting (for example, biofuels blending obligation or sales/stock share target for electric vehicles).

Documentation

More information on the TIMES model generator and specific information about TIM can be found in the Documentation.

About the developers

The list of developers, contributors and reviewers is described in the Acknowledgements section.

TIM is the successor model to the Irish TIMES Model, which has been developed by the MaREI Energy Policy and Modelling Group (EPMG) at University College Cork since 2010 and funded through various projects by the EPA, SEAI, SFI and the NTR Foundation, and has played a significant role in informing the evidence base of Irish climate target setting.

Climate policy use

This model has been built to better inform increased national climate mitigation ambition: Ireland now has one of the most ambitious near-term decarbonisation targets in the world, with a new carbon budget process to underpin action. The new model also take into account the changing energy technology landscape, and of new advances in energy systems optimisation modelling techniques.

The first set of scenarios developed with TIM have explored the implications of alternative climate mitigation, technology and demand pathways. This analysis formed a significant part of the evidence base used by the Irish Climate Change Advisory Council to develop the first set of carbon budget recommendations. - Zenodo repository of scenarios - Web app visualising results from a selection of scenarios - Presentation of TIM findings to Engineers Ireland, Nov 3^rd 2021.

Scenario descriptions

• No mitigation - No GHG constraint
• WAM - overall energy system GHG emissions contrained to the Environmental Protection Agency's "With Additional Measures" scenario
• CB - energy system GHG emissions are constrained to meet sectoral emissions ceilings.

Peer-reviewed publications

• TIM: modelling pathways to meet Ireland's long-term energy system challenges with the TIMES-Ireland Model (v1.0). 2022. Geoscientific Model Development.
• Low energy demand scenario for feasible deep decarbonisation: Whole energy systems modelling for Ireland. 2022. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition.
• Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model. 2022. Applied Energy.