goto-conversion

goto_conversion - Powered $47,000 of prize money, over 10 Gold Medals and 100 Medals on Kaggle

https://github.com/gotoconversion/goto_conversion

Keywords

bet365 betfair betfair-api betfair-data betfair-exchange betfair-historical-data betting betting-odds bookmaker bookmakers gambling horse-racing kaggle kaggle-competition kaggle-dataset kaggle-solution power-method shin-method sports-analytics sports-betting

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goto_conversion - Powered $47,000 of prize money, over 10 Gold Medals and 100 Medals on Kaggle

Basic Info

Host: GitHub
Owner: gotoConversion
License: mit
Language: Python
Default Branch: main
Homepage: https://pypi.org/project/goto-conversion/
Size: 7.32 MB

Statistics

Stars: 96
Watchers: 6
Forks: 13
Open Issues: 1
Releases: 0

Topics

bet365 betfair betfair-api betfair-data betfair-exchange betfair-historical-data betting betting-odds bookmaker bookmakers gambling horse-racing kaggle kaggle-competition kaggle-dataset kaggle-solution power-method shin-method sports-analytics sports-betting

Created over 2 years ago · Last pushed 6 months ago

Metadata Files

Readme License Citation

README.md

`goto_conversion` - Powered $47,000 of prize money, over 10 Gold Medals and 100 Medals on Kaggle

Ease of Use

To use goto_conversion, it does not require historical data for model fit, advanced domain knowledge, nor paid computational resources. Linked below provides five examples of how to use goto_conversion in the freely available, Google Colab.

Abstract

Our proposed method goto_conversion reduces all inverse odds by the same units of standard error. This attempts to consider the favourite-longshot bias by utilising the proportionately wider standard errors implied for inverses of longshot odds and vice versa.

This repository's main purpose is to implement goto_conversion, but also implements some other functions, such as efficient_shin_conversion. The Shin conversion [2] is originally a numerical solution, but according to [3], we can enhance its efficiency by reducing it to an analytical solution. We have implemented the enhanced Shin conversion as efficient_shin_conversion in this package.

The favourite-longshot bias is not limited to betting markets; it exists in stock markets too. Thus, we applied the original goto_conversion to stock markets by defining the zero_sum variant. Under the same philosophy as the original goto_conversion, zero_sum adjusts all predicted stock prices (e.g. weighted average price) by the same units of standard error to ensure all predicted stock prices relative to the index price (e.g. weighted average NASDAQ price) sum to zero. This attempts to consider the favourite-longshot bias by utilising the wider standard errors implied for predicted stock prices with low trade volume and vice versa.

References

[1] goto_conversion's Kaggle Profile

[2] E. Štrumbelj, "On determining probability forecasts from gambling odds". International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, Volume 30, Issue 4, pp. 934-943.

[3] Kizildemir, Melis, Akin, Ertugrul and Alkan, Altug. "A family of solutions related to Shin’s model for probability forecasts" Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, vol. 21, no. 2, 2025, pp. 153-158.

Owner

Login: gotoConversion
Kind: user

Repositories: 1
Profile: https://github.com/gotoConversion

Citation (CITATION.cff)

message: "If you use any material on this repo, please cite it as below."
authors:
- family-names: "Goto"
  given-names: "Kaito"
  orcid: "https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8061-9860"
title: "Gambling Odds To Outcome probabilities Conversion (goto_conversion)"
date-released: 2023-08-25
url: "https://github.com/gotoConversion/goto_conversion"

GitHub Events

Total

Watch event: 37
Push event: 88
Fork event: 6

Last Year

Watch event: 37
Push event: 88
Fork event: 6

Packages

Total packages: 1
Total downloads:
- pypi 661 last-month

Total dependent packages: 0
Total dependent repositories: 0
Total versions: 28
Total maintainers: 1

pypi.org: goto-conversion

Powered over 10 Gold Medals and 100 Medals on Kaggle

Homepage: https://github.com/gotoConversion/goto_conversion
Documentation: https://goto-conversion.readthedocs.io/
License: mit
Latest release: 2.2.1
published 8 months ago

Versions: 28
Dependent Packages: 0
Dependent Repositories: 0
Downloads: 661 Last month

Rankings

Dependent packages count: 7.5%

Average: 38.7%

Dependent repos count: 69.8%

Maintainers (1)

gotoConversion

Last synced: 7 months ago

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