costs-of-conflict

A presentation on Synthetic Control Methods and Abadie/Gardeazabal's Economic Costs of Conflict

https://github.com/alexjalmeida/costs-of-conflict

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A presentation on Synthetic Control Methods and Abadie/Gardeazabal's Economic Costs of Conflict

Basic Info
  • Host: GitHub
  • Owner: AlexJAlmeida
  • License: mit
  • Language: TeX
  • Default Branch: main
  • Size: 4.59 MB
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Created over 3 years ago · Last pushed over 3 years ago
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Readme License Citation

README.md

Overview

This repository contains slides delivered to the research fellow community at Stanford GSB on November 17, 2022.

Sources and Data

Figures in this presentation are sourced from Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) or other listed references. The generating code for this presentation was adapted from a template from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.

Structure

The slides are Costs-of-Conflict.pdf. The source code is also available, along with the images used in the presentation.

Owner

  • Name: Alexander Almeida
  • Login: AlexJAlmeida
  • Kind: user
  • Location: Palo Alto, CA

Research Fellow @ Stanford GSB

Citation (citations.bib)

@article{abadie_using_2021,
	title = {Using {Synthetic} {Controls}: {Feasibility}, {Data} {Requirements}, and {Methodological} {Aspects}},
	volume = {59},
	issn = {0022-0515},
	shorttitle = {Using {Synthetic} {Controls}},
	url = {https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jel.20191450},
	doi = {10.1257/jel.20191450},
	abstract = {Probably because of their interpretability and transparent nature, synthetic controls have become widely applied in empirical research in economics and the social sciences. This article aims to provide practical guidance to researchers employing synthetic control methods. The article starts with an overview and an introduction to synthetic control estimation. The main sections discuss the advantages of the synthetic control framework as a research design, and describe the settings where synthetic controls provide reliable estimates and those where they may fail. The article closes with a discussion of recent extensions, related methods, and avenues for future research. (JEL B41, C32, C54, E23, F15, O47)},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto},
	month = jun,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {391--425},
}

@article{kreif_examination_2016,
	title = {Examination of the {Synthetic} {Control} {Method} for {Evaluating} {Health} {Policies} with {Multiple} {Treated} {Units}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1057-9230, 1099-1050},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hec.3258},
	doi = {10.1002/hec.3258},
	language = {en},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Health Economics},
	author = {Kreif, Noémi and Grieve, Richard and Hangartner, Dominik and Turner, Alex James and Nikolova, Silviya and Sutton, Matt},
	month = dec,
	year = {2016},
	pages = ,a.{1514--1528},
}

@article{saunders_synthetic_2015,
	title = {A {Synthetic} {Control} {Approach} to {Evaluating} {Place}-{Based} {Crime} {Interventions}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0748-4518, 1573-7799},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10940-014-9226-5},
	doi = {10.1007/s10940-014-9226-5},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Journal of Quantitative Criminology},
	author = {Saunders, Jessica and Lundberg, Russell and Braga, Anthony A. and Ridgeway, Greg and Miles, Jeremy},
	month = sep,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {413--434},
}

@article{billmeier_assessing_2013,
	title = {Assessing {Economic} {Liberalization} {Episodes}: {A} {Synthetic} {Control} {Approach}},
	volume = {95},
	issn = {0034-6535, 1530-9142},
	shorttitle = {Assessing {Economic} {Liberalization} {Episodes}},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article/95/3/983-1001/58109},
	doi = {10.1162/REST_a_00324},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
	author = {Billmeier, Andreas and Nannicini, Tommaso},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {983--1001},
}

@article{abadie_synthetic_2010,
	title = {Synthetic {Control} {Methods} for {Comparative} {Case} {Studies}: {Estimating} the {Effect} of {California}’s {Tobacco} {Control} {Program}},
	volume = {105},
	issn = {0162-1459, 1537-274X},
	shorttitle = {Synthetic {Control} {Methods} for {Comparative} {Case} {Studies}},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746},
	doi = {10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746},
	language = {en},
	number = {490},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto and Diamond, Alexis and Hainmueller, Jens},
	month = jun,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {493--505},
}

@article{cavallo_catastrophic_2013,
	title = {Catastrophic {Natural} {Disasters} and {Economic} {Growth}},
	volume = {95},
	issn = {0034-6535, 1530-9142},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article/95/5/1549/58167/Catastrophic-Natural-Disasters-and-Economic-Growth},
	doi = {10.1162/REST_a_00413},
	abstract = {Abstract
            We examine the average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. For each country affected by a large disaster, we compute the counterfactual by constructing synthetic controls. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output in both the short and the long runs. However, we also show that this results from two events where radical political revolutions followed the disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
	author = {Cavallo, Eduardo and Galiani, Sebastian and Noy, Ilan and Pantano, Juan},
	month = dec,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1549--1561},
}

@article{li_removing_2021,
	title = {Removing conscientious objection: {The} impact of ‘{No} {Jab} {No} {Pay}’ and ‘{No} {Jab} {No} {Play}’ vaccine policies in {Australia}},
	volume = {145},
	issn = {00917435},
	shorttitle = {Removing conscientious objection},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0091743520304370},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2020.106406},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Preventive Medicine},
	author = {Li, Ang and Toll, Mathew},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {106406},
}

@article{gautier_terrorism_2009,
	title = {Terrorism and attitudes towards minorities: {The} effect of the {Theo} van {Gogh} murder on house prices in {Amsterdam}},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {00941190},
	shorttitle = {Terrorism and attitudes towards minorities},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0094119008001137},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jue.2008.10.004},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Journal of Urban Economics},
	author = {Gautier, Pieter A. and Siegmann, Arjen and Van Vuuren, Aico},
	month = mar,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {113--126},
}

@article{abadie_comparative_2015,
	title = {Comparative {Politics} and the {Synthetic} {Control} {Method}},
	volume = {59},
	issn = {00925853},
	shorttitle = {Comparative {Politics} and the {Synthetic} {Control} {Method}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12116},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12116},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto and Diamond, Alexis and Hainmueller, Jens},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {495--510},
}

@article{abadie_economic_2003,
	title = {The {Economic} {Costs} of {Conflict}: {A} {Case} {Study} of the {Basque} {Country}},
	volume = {93},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {The {Economic} {Costs} of {Conflict}},
	url = {https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/000282803321455188},
	doi = {10.1257/000282803321455188},
	abstract = {This article investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism in the late 1960's, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In addition, we use the 1998–1999 truce as a natural experiment. We find that stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto and Gardeazabal, Javier},
	month = feb,
	year = {2003},
	pages = {113--132},
}

@article{athey_state_2017,
	title = {The {State} of {Applied} {Econometrics}: {Causality} and {Policy} {Evaluation}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0895-3309},
	shorttitle = {The {State} of {Applied} {Econometrics}},
	url = {https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.31.2.3},
	doi = {10.1257/jep.31.2.3},
	abstract = {In this paper, we discuss recent developments in econometrics that we view as important for empirical researchers working on policy evaluation questions. We focus on three main areas, in each case, highlighting recommendations for applied work. First, we discuss new research on identification strategies in program evaluation, with particular focus on synthetic control methods, regression discontinuity, external validity, and the causal interpretation of regression methods. Second, we discuss various forms of supplementary analyses, including placebo analyses as well as sensitivity and robustness analyses, intended to make the identification strategies more credible. Third, we discuss some implications of recent advances in machine learning methods for causal effects, including methods to adjust for differences between treated and control units in high-dimensional settings, and methods for identifying and estimating heterogenous treatment effects.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
	author = {Athey, Susan and Imbens, Guido W.},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {3--32},
}

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