SECM: Societal Evolution Computational Model (V0.5 Alpha)

“Humanity always advances through contradictions and conflicts.”

The SECM (Societal Evolution Computational Model) is a quantitative framework designed to analyze and visualize the contradictions within human societies and the structural limits of their capacity to bear these contradictions.

Rather than focusing on short-term economic forecasting, SECM emphasizes long-term systemic feedback: how productive capacity interacts with inequality, stress, and external shocks to generate cycles of stability, crisis, and transformation.

The V0.5 Alpha release marks the first full-featured build with a standalone simulator (executable) and a complete illustrated user manual, enabling direct replication of results without programming.

📘 Overview

SECM captures societal dynamics through three primary axes:

• X-axis (Productive Capacity): energy base, infrastructure, KWPE (Kilowatt Productivity Equivalent).
  
• Y-axis (Social Cost / Tension): class opportunity cost, inequality, population–land stress, systemic frictions.
  
• Z-axis (External Perturbations): wars, pandemics, exogenous stabilizers or destabilizers.
  

Together, these axes describe how societies accumulate stress, when they surpass their contradiction-bearing limit, and how crises or restructurings unfold.

🌟 What’s New in V0.5 Alpha

• Standalone Simulator
  A packaged .exe (requires .NET 8) with both UI and Excel-driven modes, allowing direct use without coding.

• Illustrated User Manual
  Full step-by-step instructions with screenshots, enabling non-technical users to run and interpret simulations.

• Unified-parameter multi-nation validation
  One reference calibration was locked and successfully applied across four countries (USA, Japan, Argentina, Greece), demonstrating cross-national robustness.

• Contradiction limit analysis
  Tracks when social tension (Y) surpasses the structural tolerance line (Ylimit), reproducing real-world crises (e.g., dot-com slowdown, global financial crisis, sovereign debt collapse).

• Extreme stress testing
  Robust under horizon truncation and radical Y-axis perturbations, producing Pearson correlations ≈ 1.0 across timeframes.

• Comprehensive documentation
  Includes the technical white paper, validation report, and LaTeX sources for reproducible research.

📂 Repository Structure

text SECM-Project │ README.md │ LICENSE CC BY-NC 4.0 │ citation.bib │ CITATION.cff │ ├─Coding/SECM V0.5 Alpha → Source code (VB / .NET 8) ├─Data → Input datasets & results │ ├─DATAsource → LOCF-patched 1980–2020 data (USA, Japan, Greece, Argentina) │ └─ResultData → Simulation outputs & stress tests ├─Diagrams → Logical & validation diagrams ├─Document → White paper, manuals, validation reports ├─Program → Executable builds & input templates └─Tex → LaTeX sources for reproducible docs

📊 Validation

• USA (1980–2020): dot-com slowdown (2001), global financial crisis (2008).
  
• Japan (1980–2020): stagnation trends, COVID-19 2020 social stress release.
  
• Argentina (1980–2020): Austral Plan (1985), 2001 collapse, repeated cycles.
  
• Greece (1980–2020): sovereign debt crisis (2009), two extreme-case stress tests.
  

Extreme stress tests produced Pearson correlation = 1.0 between baseline and shortened horizons, confirming stability and robustness.

🚀 How to Run

1. Executable (recommended):

   • Download from Program/Zip/SECM_V0.5_Alpha.zip.
     
   • Requires .NET 8 runtime.
     
   • Extract and run SECM运行实体.exe.
     
   • Full instructions: see SECM V0.5 Alpha User Manual.pdf.
     

2. Excel-driven mode:

   • Open SECM_V0.5_AllInputs_Template.xlsx.
     
   • Stage-based simulation supported with dynamic parameter updates.
     

3. Source code:

   • Compile SECM_Engine.vb under VB / .NET 8.
     
   • Dependencies: MathNet.Numerics, NPOI, Newtonsoft.Json, ImageSharp, etc.
     

🔒 License

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International.
Commercial or derivative use requires prior permission.

📚 Citation

```bibtex @misc{strangethought2025secmv05alpha, author = {Strangethought2025}, title = {{SECM: Societal Evolution Computational Model (V0.5 ALPHA)}}, year = {2025}, version = {V0.5 ALPHA}, howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/Strangethought2025/SECM-Project}}, doi = {10.5281/zenodo.16884870}, note = {CC BY-NC 4.0 License} }