@article{naimi_sdm_2016,
	title = {sdm: a reproducible and extensible {R} platform for species distribution modelling},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {0906-7590, 1600-0587},
	shorttitle = {sdm},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.01881},
	doi = {10.1111/ecog.01881},
	abstract = {sdm is an object‐oriented, reproducible and extensible, platform for species distribution modelling. It uses individual species and community‐based approaches, enabling ensembles of models to be fitted and evaluated, to project species potential distributions in space and time. It provides a standardized and unified structure for handling species distributions data and modelling techniques, and supports markedly different modelling approaches, including correlative, process‐based (mechanistic), agent‐based, and cellular automata. The object‐oriented design of software is such that scientists can modify existing methods, extend the framework by developing new methods or modelling procedures, and share them to be reproduced by other scientists. sdm can handle spatial and temporal data for single or multiple species and uses high performance computing solutions to speed up modelling and simulations. The framework is implemented in R, providing a flexible and easy‐to‐use GUI interface.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecography},
	author = {Naimi, Babak and Araújo, Miguel B.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {368--375},
}

@article{araujo_standards_2019,
	title = {Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2375-2548},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aat4858},
	doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aat4858},
	abstract = {Biodiversity assessments use a variety of data and models. We propose best-practice standards for studies in these assessments.
          , 
            Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Science Advances},
	author = {Araújo, Miguel B. and Anderson, Robert P. and Márcia Barbosa, A. and Beale, Colin M. and Dormann, Carsten F. and Early, Regan and Garcia, Raquel A. and Guisan, Antoine and Maiorano, Luigi and Naimi, Babak and O’Hara, Robert B. and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Rahbek, Carsten},
	month = jan,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {eaat4858},
}

@article{araujo_would_2004,
	title = {Would climate change drive species out of reserves? {An} assessment of existing reserve‐selection methods},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {1354-1013, 1365-2486},
	shorttitle = {Would climate change drive species out of reserves?},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve‐selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long‐term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve‐selection methods to secure species in a climate‐change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6–11\% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50‐year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6\% being 1–3\% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2–5\% to the choice of reserve‐selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5\% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2\% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93\% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Global Change Biology},
	author = {Araújo, Miguel B. and Cabeza, Mar and Thuiller, Wilfried and Hannah, Lee and Williams, Paul H.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2004},
	pages = {1618--1626},
}

@article{araujo_ensemble_2007,
	title = {Ensemble forecasting of species distributions},
	volume = {22},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {01695347},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S016953470600303X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
	author = {Araujo, M and New, M},
	month = jan,
	year = {2007},
	pages = {42--47},
}

@article{baselga_individualistic_2009,
	title = {Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0906-7590, 1600-0587},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05856.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05856.x},
	abstract = {Studies investigating the consequences of future climate changes on species distributions usually start with the assumption that species respond to climate changes in an individualistic fashion. This assumption has led researchers to use bioclimate envelope models that use present climate‐range relationships to characterize species’ limits of tolerance to climate, and then apply climate‐change scenarios to enable projections of altered species distributions. However, there are techniques that combine climate variables together with information on the composition of assemblages to enable projections that are expected to mimic community dynamics. Here, we compare, for the first time, the performance of GLM (generalized linear model) and CQO (canonical quadratic ordination; a type of community‐based GLM) for projecting distributions of species under climate change scenarios. We found that projections from these two methods varied both in terms of accuracy (GLM providing generally more accurate projections than CQO) and in the broad diversity patterns yielded (higher species richness values projected with CQO). Model outputs were also affected by species‐specific traits, such as species range size and species geographical positions, supporting the view that methods are sensitive to different degrees of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. This study reveals differences in projections between individual‐ and community‐based approaches that require further scrutiny, but it does not find support for unsupervised use community‐based models for investigating climate change impacts on species distributions. Reasons for this lack of support are discussed.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecography},
	author = {Baselga, Andrés and Araújo, Miguel B.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {55--65},
}

@article{breiman_[no_2001,
	title = {[{No} title found]},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {08856125},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1010933404324},
	doi = {10.1023/A:1010933404324},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Machine Learning},
	author = {Breiman, Leo},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {5--32},
}

@article{carpenter_domain:_1993,
	title = {{DOMAIN}: a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals},
	volume = {2},
	copyright = {http://www.springer.com/tdm},
	issn = {0960-3115, 1572-9710},
	shorttitle = {{DOMAIN}},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00051966},
	doi = {10.1007/BF00051966},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Biodiversity and Conservation},
	author = {Carpenter, G. and Gillison, A. N. and Winter, J.},
	month = dec,
	year = {1993},
	pages = {667--680},
}

@article{cavender-bares_integrating_2022,
	title = {Integrating remote sensing with ecology and evolution to advance biodiversity conservation},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {2397-334X},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01702-5},
	doi = {10.1038/s41559-022-01702-5},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Nature Ecology \& Evolution},
	author = {Cavender-Bares, Jeannine and Schneider, Fabian D. and Santos, Maria João and Armstrong, Amanda and Carnaval, Ana and Dahlin, Kyla M. and Fatoyinbo, Lola and Hurtt, George C. and Schimel, David and Townsend, Philip A. and Ustin, Susan L. and Wang, Zhihui and Wilson, Adam M.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {506--519},
}

@article{ceballos_biological_2017,
	title = {Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines},
	volume = {114},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1704949114},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1704949114},
	abstract = {Significance
            The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in vertebrates, even in common “species of low concern.” Dwindling population sizes and range shrinkages amount to a massive anthropogenic erosion of biodiversity and of the ecosystem services essential to civilization. This “biological annihilation” underlines the seriousness for humanity of Earth’s ongoing sixth mass extinction event.
          , 
            The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32\% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30\% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40\% of the species have experienced severe population declines ({\textgreater}80\% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event.},
	language = {en},
	number = {30},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Ceballos, Gerardo and Ehrlich, Paul R. and Dirzo, Rodolfo},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
}

@article{grimes_saving_2004,
	title = {Saving {Asia}’s threatened birds: a guide for government and civil society},
	volume = {120},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {00063207},
	shorttitle = {Saving {Asia}’s threatened birds},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0006320704000412},
	doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2004.02.002},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Biological Conservation},
	author = {Grimes, Llewellyn},
	month = nov,
	year = {2004},
	pages = {150},
}

@article{chen_rapid_2011,
	title = {Rapid {Range} {Shifts} of {Species} {Associated} with {High} {Levels} of {Climate} {Warming}},
	volume = {333},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1206432},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1206432},
	abstract = {A meta-analysis shows that species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change at an accelerating rate.
          , 
            The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6045},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Chen, I-Ching and Hill, Jane K. and Ohlemüller, Ralf and Roy, David B. and Thomas, Chris D.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {1024--1026},
}

@article{colwell_hutchinsons_2009,
	title = {Hutchinson's duality: {The} once and future niche},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	shorttitle = {Hutchinson's duality},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.0901650106},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.0901650106},
	abstract = {The duality between “niche” and “biotope” proposed by G. Evelyn Hutchinson provides a powerful way to conceptualize and analyze biogeographical distributions in relation to spatial environmental patterns. Both Joseph Grinnell and Charles Elton had attributed niches to environments. Attributing niches, instead, to species, allowed Hutchinson's key innovation: the formal severing of physical place from environment that is expressed by the duality. In biogeography, the physical world (a spatial extension of what Hutchinson called the biotope) is conceived as a map, each point (or cell) of which is characterized by its geographical coordinates and the local values of
              n
              environmental attributes at a given time. Exactly the same
              n
              environmental attributes define the corresponding niche space, as niche axes, allowing reciprocal projections between the geographic distribution of a species, actual or potential, past or future, and its niche. In biogeographical terms, the realized niche has come to express not only the effects of species interactions (as Hutchinson intended), but also constraints of dispersal limitation and the lack of contemporary environments corresponding to parts of the fundamental niche. Hutchinson's duality has been used to classify and map environments; model potential species distributions under past, present, and future climates; study the distributions of invasive species; discover new species; and simulate increasingly more realistic worlds, leading to spatially explicit, stochastic models that encompass speciation, extinction, range expansion, and evolutionary adaptation to changing environments.},
	language = {en},
	number = {supplement\_2},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Colwell, Robert K. and Rangel, Thiago F.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {19651--19658},
}

@article{dirzo_defaunation_2014,
	title = {Defaunation in the {Anthropocene}},
	volume = {345},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1251817},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1251817},
	abstract = {We live amid a global wave of anthropogenically driven biodiversity loss: species and population extirpations and, critically, declines in local species abundance. Particularly, human impacts on animal biodiversity are an under-recognized form of global environmental change. Among terrestrial vertebrates, 322 species have become extinct since 1500, and populations of the remaining species show 25\% average decline in abundance. Invertebrate patterns are equally dire: 67\% of monitored populations show 45\% mean abundance decline. Such animal declines will cascade onto ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Much remains unknown about this “Anthropocene defaunation”; these knowledge gaps hinder our capacity to predict and limit defaunation impacts. Clearly, however, defaunation is both a pervasive component of the planet’s sixth mass extinction and also a major driver of global ecological change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6195},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Dirzo, Rodolfo and Young, Hillary S. and Galetti, Mauro and Ceballos, Gerardo and Isaac, Nick J. B. and Collen, Ben},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {401--406},
}

@article{elith_evaluation_2005,
	title = {The evaluation strip: {A} new and robust method for plotting predicted responses from species distribution models},
	volume = {186},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {03043800},
	shorttitle = {The evaluation strip},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380004006180},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.12.007},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	author = {Elith, Jane and Ferrier, Simon and Huettmann, Falk and Leathwick, John},
	month = aug,
	year = {2005},
	pages = {280--289},
}

@article{elith_species_2009,
	title = {Species {Distribution} {Models}: {Ecological} {Explanation} and {Prediction} {Across} {Space} and {Time}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {1543-592X, 1545-2069},
	shorttitle = {Species {Distribution} {Models}},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159},
	abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates. They are used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict distributions across landscapes, sometimes requiring extrapolation in space and time. SDMs are now widely used across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. Differences in methods between disciplines reflect both differences in species mobility and in “established use.” Model realism and robustness is influenced by selection of relevant predictors and modeling method, consideration of scale, how the interplay between environmental and geographic factors is handled, and the extent of extrapolation. Current linkages between SDM practice and ecological theory are often weak, hindering progress. Remaining challenges include: improvement of methods for modeling presence-only data and for model selection and evaluation; accounting for biotic interactions; and assessing model uncertainty.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics},
	author = {Elith, Jane and Leathwick, John R.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {677--697},
}

@article{elith_working_2008,
	title = {A working guide to boosted regression trees},
	volume = {77},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {0021-8790, 1365-2656},
	url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Journal of Animal Ecology},
	author = {Elith, J. and Leathwick, J. R. and Hastie, T.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {802--813},
}

@article{fielding_review_1997,
	title = {A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models},
	volume = {24},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0376-8929, 1469-4387},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0376892997000088/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0376892997000088},
	abstract = {Predicting the distribution of endangered species from habitat data is frequently perceived to be a useful technique. Models that predict the presence or absence of a species are normally judged by the number of prediction errors. These may be of two types: false positives and false negatives. Many of the prediction errors can be traced to ecological processes such as unsaturated habitat and species interactions. Consequently, if prediction errors are not placed in an ecological context the results of the model may be misleading. The simplest, and most widely used, measure of prediction accuracy is the number of correctly classified cases. There are other measures of prediction success that may be more appropriate. Strategies for assessing the causes and costs of these errors are discussed. A range of techniques for measuring error in presence/absence models, including some that are seldom used by ecologists (e.g. ROC plots and cost matrices), are described. A new approach to estimating prediction error, which is based on the spatial characteristics of the errors, is proposed. Thirteen recommendations are made to enable the objective selection of an error assessment technique for ecological presence/absence models.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Environmental Conservation},
	author = {Fielding, Alan H. and Bell, John F.},
	month = mar,
	year = {1997},
	pages = {38--49},
}

@article{friedman_multivariate_1991,
	title = {Multivariate {Adaptive} {Regression} {Splines}},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {0090-5364},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-statistics/volume-19/issue-1/Multivariate-Adaptive-Regression-Splines/10.1214/aos/1176347963.full},
	doi = {10.1214/aos/1176347963},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {The Annals of Statistics},
	author = {Friedman, Jerome H.},
	month = mar,
	year = {1991},
}

@article{friedman_regularization_2010,
	title = {Regularization {Paths} for {Generalized} {Linear} {Models} via {Coordinate} {Descent}},
	volume = {33},
	issn = {1548-7660},
	url = {http://www.jstatsoft.org/v33/i01/},
	doi = {10.18637/jss.v033.i01},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Friedman, Jerome and Hastie, Trevor and Tibshirani, Robert},
	year = {2010},
}

@article{Dormann2013,
  title={Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance},
  author={Dormann, Carsten F and Elith, Jane and Bacher, Sven and Buchmann, Carsten and Carl, Gudrun and Carré, Gabriel and Marquéz, Jaime R García and Gruber, Bernd and Lafourcade, Bruno and Leitao, Pedro J and others},
  journal={Ecography},
  volume={36},
  number={1},
  pages={27--46},
  year={2013},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}


@article{friedman_greedy_2001,
	title = {Greedy function approximation: {A} gradient boosting machine.},
	volume = {29},
	issn = {0090-5364},
	shorttitle = {Greedy function approximation},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-statistics/volume-29/issue-5/Greedy-function-approximation-A-gradient-boosting-machine/10.1214/aos/1013203451.full},
	doi = {10.1214/aos/1013203451},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {The Annals of Statistics},
	author = {Friedman, Jerome H.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2001},
}

@article{garcia_exploring_2012,
	title = {Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for {African} vertebrates},
	volume = {18},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {1354-1013, 1365-2486},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02605.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02605.x},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub‐Saharan Africa. To summarize
              a priori
              the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co‐varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi‐model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late‐century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub‐Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Global Change Biology},
	author = {Garcia, Raquel A. and Burgess, Neil D. and Cabeza, Mar and Rahbek, Carsten and Araújo, Miguel B.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {1253--1269},
}

@article{gardner_artificial_1998,
	title = {Artificial neural networks (the multilayer perceptron)—a review of applications in the atmospheric sciences},
	volume = {32},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {13522310},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231097004470},
	doi = {10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00447-0},
	language = {en},
	number = {14-15},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
	author = {Gardner, M.W and Dorling, S.R},
	month = aug,
	year = {1998},
	pages = {2627--2636},
}

@article{gogol-prokurat_predicting_2011,
	title = {Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model},
	volume = {21},
	copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1.1},
	issn = {1051-0761},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/09-1190.1},
	doi = {10.1890/09-1190.1},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	author = {Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie},
	month = jan,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {33--47},
}

@article{grinnell_niche-relationships_1917,
	title = {The {Niche}-{Relationships} of the {California} {Thrasher}},
	volume = {34},
	issn = {0004-8038},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/4072271},
	doi = {10.2307/4072271},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {The Auk},
	author = {Grinnell, Joseph},
	year = {1917},
	pages = {427--433},
}

@article{guisan_predicting_2005,
	title = {Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1461-023X, 1461-0248},
	shorttitle = {Predicting species distribution},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x},
	abstract = {Abstract
            In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	author = {Guisan, Antoine and Thuiller, Wilfried},
	month = sep,
	year = {2005},
	pages = {993--1009},
}

@article{guisan_predicting_2013,
	title = {Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1461-023X, 1461-0248},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12189},
	doi = {10.1111/ele.12189},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on‐ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision‐making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision‐making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of ‘translators’ between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision‐making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	author = {Guisan, Antoine and Tingley, Reid and Baumgartner, John B. and Naujokaitis‐Lewis, Ilona and Sutcliffe, Patricia R. and Tulloch, Ayesha I. T. and Regan, Tracey J. and Brotons, Lluis and McDonald‐Madden, Eve and Mantyka‐Pringle, Chrystal and Martin, Tara G. and Rhodes, Jonathan R. and Maggini, Ramona and Setterfield, Samantha A. and Elith, Jane and Schwartz, Mark W. and Wintle, Brendan A. and Broennimann, Olivier and Austin, Mike and Ferrier, Simon and Kearney, Michael R. and Possingham, Hugh P. and Buckley, Yvonne M.},
	editor = {Arita, Hector},
	month = dec,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1424--1435},
}

@article{guisan_predictive_2000,
	title = {Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology},
	volume = {135},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {03043800},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380000003549},
	doi = {10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00354-9},
	language = {en},
	number = {2-3},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	author = {Guisan, Antoine and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2000},
	pages = {147--186},
}

@book{hastie_generalized_1999,
	address = {Boca Raton, Fla},
	title = {Generalized additive models},
	isbn = {9780412343902},
	publisher = {Chapman \& Hall/CRC},
	author = {Hastie, Trevor and Tibshirani, Robert},
	year = {1999},
	keywords = {Regression analysis, Linear models (Statistics), Smoothing (Statistics)},
}

@article{hirzel_ecological-niche_2002,
	title = {{ECOLOGICAL}-{NICHE} {FACTOR} {ANALYSIS}: {HOW} {TO} {COMPUTE} {HABITAT}-{SUITABILITY} {MAPS} {WITHOUT} {ABSENCE} {DATA}?},
	volume = {83},
	copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1.1},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	shorttitle = {{ECOLOGICAL}-{NICHE} {FACTOR} {ANALYSIS}},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2027:ENFAHT]2.0.CO;2},
	doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2027:ENFAHT]2.0.CO;2},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecology},
	author = {Hirzel, A. H. and Hausser, J. and Chessel, D. and Perrin, N.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2002},
	pages = {2027--2036},
}

@article{hirzel_habitat_2008,
	title = {Habitat suitability modelling and niche theory},
	volume = {45},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {0021-8901, 1365-2664},
	url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01524.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01524.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},
	author = {Hirzel, Alexandre H. and Le Lay, Gwenaëlle},
	month = oct,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {1372--1381},
}

@article{schmid-hempel_evolutionary_2003,
	title = {On the evolutionary ecology of specific immune defence},
	volume = {18},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {01695347},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169534702000137},
	doi = {10.1016/S0169-5347(02)00013-7},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
	author = {Schmid-Hempel, Paul and Ebert, Dieter},
	month = jan,
	year = {2003},
	pages = {27--32},
}

@article{jackson_responses_2000,
	title = {Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late {Quaternary}},
	volume = {26},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0094-8373, 1938-5331},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0094837300026932/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0094837300026932},
	abstract = {The environmental and biotic history of the late Quaternary represents a critical junction between ecology, global change studies, and pre-Quaternary paleobiology. Late Quaternary records indicate the modes and mechanisms of environmental variation and biotic responses at timescales of 10
              1
              –10
              4
              years. Climatic changes of the late Quaternary have occurred continuously across a wide range of temporal scales, with the magnitude of change generally increasing with time span. Responses of terrestrial plant populations have ranged from tolerance in situ to moderate shifts in habitat to migration and/or extinction, depending on magnitudes and rates of environmental change. Species assemblages have been disaggregated and recombined, forming a changing array of vegetation patterns on the landscape. These patterns of change are characteristic of terrestrial plants and animals but may not be representative of all other life-forms or habitats. Complexity of response, particularly extent of species recombination, depends in part on the nature of the underlying environmental gradients and how they change through time. Environmental gradients in certain habitats may change in relatively simple fashion, allowing long-term persistence of species associations and spatial patterns. Consideration of late Quaternary climatic changes indicates that both the rate and magnitude of climatic changes anticipated for the coming century are unprecedented, presenting unique challenges to the biota of the planet.},
	language = {en},
	number = {S4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Paleobiology},
	author = {Jackson, Stephen T. and Overpeck, Jonathan T.},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {194--220},
}

@article{zhong_new_2006,
	title = {A new multi-class support vector algorithm},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1055-6788, 1029-4937},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10556780500094812},
	doi = {10.1080/10556780500094812},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Optimization Methods and Software},
	author = {Zhong, Ping and Fukushima, Masao},
	month = jun,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {359--372},
}

@article{kearney_mechanistic_2009,
	title = {Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {1461-023X, 1461-0248},
	shorttitle = {Mechanistic niche modelling},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01277.x},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial environmental data to make inferences on species’ range limits and habitat suitability. Conceptually, these models aim to determine and map components of a species’ ecological niche through space and time, and they have become important tools in pure and applied ecology and evolutionary biology. Most approaches are correlative in that they statistically link spatial data to species distribution records. An alternative strategy is to explicitly incorporate the mechanistic links between the functional traits of organisms and their environments into SDMs. Here, we review how the principles of biophysical ecology can be used to link spatial data to the physiological responses and constraints of organisms. This provides a mechanistic view of the fundamental niche which can then be mapped to the landscape to infer range constraints. We show how physiologically based SDMs can be developed for different organisms in different environmental contexts. Mechanistic SDMs have different strengths and weaknesses to correlative approaches, and there are many exciting and unexplored prospects for integrating the two approaches. As physiological knowledge becomes better integrated into SDMs, we will make more robust predictions of range shifts in novel or non‐equilibrium contexts such as invasions, translocations, climate change and evolutionary shifts.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	author = {Kearney, Michael and Porter, Warren},
	month = apr,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {334--350},
}

@article{kissling_building_2018,
	title = {Building essential biodiversity variables ( {\textless}span style="font-variant:small-caps;"{\textgreater}{EBV}{\textless}/span{\textgreater} s) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale},
	volume = {93},
	issn = {1464-7931, 1469-185X},
	shorttitle = {Building essential biodiversity variables ( {\textless}span style="font-variant},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/brv.12359},
	doi = {10.1111/brv.12359},
	abstract = {ABSTRACT
            
              Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of
              E
              ssential
              B
              iodiversity
              V
              ariables (
              EBV
              s) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a ‘
              B
              ig
              D
              ata’ approach to building global
              EBV
              data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence‐only or presence–absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi‐source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global
              EBV
              data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter‐ or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of
              EBV
              s by the
              G
              roup on
              E
              arth
              O
              bservations
              B
              iodiversity
              O
              bservation
              N
              etwork (
              GEO BON
              ), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building
              EBV
              data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and aggregation of various raw data sources, data quality control, taxonomic name matching and statistical modelling of integrated data. We illustrate these steps with concrete examples from existing citizen science and professional monitoring projects, including e
              B
              ird, the
              T
              ropical
              E
              cology
              A
              ssessment and
              M
              onitoring network, the
              L
              iving
              P
              lanet
              I
              ndex and the
              B
              altic
              S
              ea zooplankton monitoring. The identified workflow steps are applicable to both terrestrial and aquatic systems and a broad range of spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. They depend on clear, findable and accessible metadata, and we provide an overview of current data and metadata standards. Several challenges remain to be solved for building global
              EBV
              data products: (
              i
              ) developing tools and models for combining heterogeneous, multi‐source data sets and filling data gaps in geographic, temporal and taxonomic coverage, (
              ii
              ) integrating emerging methods and technologies for data collection such as citizen science, sensor networks,
              DNA
              ‐based techniques and satellite remote sensing, (
              iii
              ) solving major technical issues related to data product structure, data storage, execution of workflows and the production process/cycle as well as approaching technical interoperability among research infrastructures, (
              iv
              ) allowing semantic interoperability by developing and adopting standards and tools for capturing consistent data and metadata, and (
              v
              ) ensuring legal interoperability by endorsing open data or data that are free from restrictions on use, modification and sharing. Addressing these challenges is critical for biodiversity research and for assessing progress towards conservation policy targets and sustainable development goals.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Biological Reviews},
	author = {Kissling, W. Daniel and Ahumada, Jorge A. and Bowser, Anne and Fernandez, Miguel and Fernández, Néstor and García, Enrique Alonso and Guralnick, Robert P. and Isaac, Nick J. B. and Kelling, Steve and Los, Wouter and McRae, Louise and Mihoub, Jean‐Baptiste and Obst, Matthias and Santamaria, Monica and Skidmore, Andrew K. and Williams, Kristen J. and Agosti, Donat and Amariles, Daniel and Arvanitidis, Christos and Bastin, Lucy and De Leo, Francesca and Egloff, Willi and Elith, Jane and Hobern, Donald and Martin, David and Pereira, Henrique M. and Pesole, Graziano and Peterseil, Johannes and Saarenmaa, Hannu and Schigel, Dmitry and Schmeller, Dirk S. and Segata, Nicola and Turak, Eren and Uhlir, Paul F. and Wee, Brian and Hardisty, Alex R.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {600--625},
}

@article{barnosky_has_2011,
	title = {Has the {Earth}’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?},
	volume = {471},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678},
	doi = {10.1038/nature09678},
	language = {en},
	number = {7336},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Barnosky, Anthony D. and Matzke, Nicholas and Tomiya, Susumu and Wogan, Guinevere O. U. and Swartz, Brian and Quental, Tiago B. and Marshall, Charles and McGuire, Jenny L. and Lindsey, Emily L. and Maguire, Kaitlin C. and Mersey, Ben and Ferrer, Elizabeth A.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {51--57},
}

@article{laxton_balancing_2023,
	title = {Balancing structural complexity with ecological insight in {Spatio}‐temporal species distribution models},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {2041-210X, 2041-210X},
	url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.13957},
	doi = {10.1111/2041-210X.13957},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              
                
                  The potential for statistical complexity in species distribution models (SDMs) has greatly increased with advances in computational power. Structurally complex models provide the flexibility to analyse intricate ecological systems and realistically messy data, but can be difficult to interpret, reducing their practical impact. Founding model complexity in ecological theory can improve insight gained from SDMs.
                
                
                  
                    Here, we evaluate a marked point process approach, which uses multiple Gaussian random fields to represent population dynamics of the Eurasian crane
                    Grus grus
                    in a spatio‐temporal species distribution model. We discuss the role of model components and their impacts on predictions, in comparison with a simpler binomial presence/absence approach. Inference is carried out using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) with inlabru, an accessible and computationally efficient approach for Bayesian hierarchical modelling, which is not yet widely used in SDMs.
                  
                
                
                  Using the marked point process approach, crane distribution was predicted to be dependent on the density of suitable habitat patches, as well as close to observations of the existing population. This demonstrates the advantage of complex model components in accounting for spatio‐temporal population dynamics (such as habitat preferences and dispersal limitations) that are not explained by environmental variables. However, including an AR1 temporal correlation structure in the models resulted in unrealistic predictions of species distribution; highlighting the need for careful consideration when determining the level of model complexity.
                
                
                  Increasing model complexity, with careful evaluation of the effects of additional model components, can provide a more realistic representation of a system, which is of particular importance for a practical and impact‐focused discipline such as ecology (though these methods extend to applications for a wide range of systems). Founding complexity in contextual theory is not only fundamental to maintaining model interpretability but can be a useful approach to improving insight gained from model outputs.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
	author = {Laxton, Megan R. and Rodríguez De Rivera, Óscar and Soriano‐Redondo, Andrea and Illian, Janine B.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {162--172},
}

@article{lenoir_climaterelated_2015,
	title = {Climate‐related range shifts – a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {0906-7590, 1600-0587},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecog.00967},
	doi = {10.1111/ecog.00967},
	abstract = {Poleward and upward shifts are the most frequent types of range shifts that have been reported in response to contemporary climate change. However, the number of reports documenting other types of range shifts – such as in east‐west directions across longitudes or, even more unexpectedly, towards tropical latitudes and lower elevations – is increasing rapidly. Recent studies show that these range shifts may not be so unexpected once the local climate changes are accounted for. We here provide an updated synthesis of the fast‐moving research on climate‐related range shifts. By describing the current state of the art on geographical patterns of species range shifts under contemporary climate change for plants and animals across both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, we identified a number of research shortfalls. In addition to the recognised geographic shortfall in the tropics, we found taxonomic and methodological shortfalls with knowledge gaps regarding range shifts of prokaryotes, lowland range shifts of terrestrial plants, and bathymetric range shifts of marine plants. Based on this review, we provide a research agenda for filling these gaps. We outline a comprehensive framework for assessing multidimensional changes in species distributions, which should then be contrasted with expectations based on climate change indices, such as velocity measures accounting for complex local climate changes. Finally, we propose a unified classification of geographical patterns of species range shifts, arranged in a bi‐dimensional space defined by species’ persistence and movement rates. Placing the observed and expected shifts into this bi‐dimensional space should lead to more informed assessments of extinction risks.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecography},
	author = {Lenoir, J. and Svenning, J.‐C.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {15--28},
}

@article{martinez-minaya_species_2018,
	title = {Species distribution modeling: a statistical review with focus in spatio-temporal issues},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {1436-3240, 1436-3259},
	shorttitle = {Species distribution modeling},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00477-018-1548-7},
	doi = {10.1007/s00477-018-1548-7},
	language = {en},
	number = {11},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
	author = {Martínez-Minaya, Joaquín and Cameletti, Michela and Conesa, David and Pennino, Maria Grazia},
	month = nov,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {3227--3244},
}

@article{mcshea_what_2014,
	title = {What are the roles of species distribution models in conservation planning?},
	volume = {41},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0376-8929, 1469-4387},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0376892913000581/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0376892913000581},
	abstract = {The development of species distribution models (SDMs) has benefited biodiversity conservation through their linkage of science to policy and decision processes. These models have evolved to provide scenarios of future landscapes based on known and projected environmental parameters. Whereas there are many caveats to their use, the persuasive power of the models for conveying the consequences of environmental change to the non-science community is immense. Scientists are obliged to convey the uncertainty of the futures depicted in their models, but also to involve the stakeholders who will shape those future conditions. Stakeholders can identify the natural resources they want to sustain, voice their priorities in environmental policy, and articulate the range of solutions they are willing to accept. The creation of alternative futures is an academic exercise if not linked to real viable decisions concerning important resources. SDMs only reach their full potential when they bring together scientists, public stakeholders and policy makers, and are used as an adaptive management tool to understand complex landscapes that are undergoing short- and long-term change.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Environmental Conservation},
	author = {McSHEA, William J.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {93--96},
}

@article{mi_global_2023,
	title = {Global {Protected} {Areas} as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36987-y},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-36987-y},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for {\textgreater}14,000 ({\textasciitilde}70\% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that {\textgreater}91\% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species’ distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8\% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	author = {Mi, Chunrong and Ma, Liang and Yang, Mengyuan and Li, Xinhai and Meiri, Shai and Roll, Uri and Oskyrko, Oleksandra and Pincheira-Donoso, Daniel and Harvey, Lilly P. and Jablonski, Daniel and Safaei-Mahroo, Barbod and Ghaffari, Hanyeh and Smid, Jiri and Jarvie, Scott and Kimani, Ronnie Mwangi and Masroor, Rafaqat and Kazemi, Seyed Mahdi and Nneji, Lotanna Micah and Fokoua, Arnaud Marius Tchassem and Tasse Taboue, Geraud C. and Bauer, Aaron and Nogueira, Cristiano and Meirte, Danny and Chapple, David G. and Das, Indraneil and Grismer, Lee and Avila, Luciano Javier and Ribeiro Júnior, Marco Antônio and Tallowin, Oliver J. S. and Torres-Carvajal, Omar and Wagner, Philipp and Ron, Santiago R. and Wang, Yuezhao and Itescu, Yuval and Nagy, Zoltán Tamás and Wilcove, David S. and Liu, Xuan and Du, Weiguo},
	month = mar,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {1389},
}

@article{mirtl_genesis_2018,
	title = {Genesis, goals and achievements of {Long}-{Term} {Ecological} {Research} at the global scale: {A} critical review of {ILTER} and future directions},
	volume = {626},
	issn = {00489697},
	shorttitle = {Genesis, goals and achievements of {Long}-{Term} {Ecological} {Research} at the global scale},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969717334204},
	doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.001},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
	author = {Mirtl, M. and T. Borer, E. and Djukic, I. and Forsius, M. and Haubold, H. and Hugo, W. and Jourdan, J. and Lindenmayer, D. and McDowell, W.H. and Muraoka, H. and Orenstein, D.E. and Pauw, J.C. and Peterseil, J. and Shibata, H. and Wohner, C. and Yu, X. and Haase, P.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1439--1462},
}

@article{noauthor_errata_2009,
	title = {{ERRATA}},
	volume = {90},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {0012-9658, 1939-9170},
	url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/0012-9658-90.5.1425},
	doi = {10.1890/0012-9658-90.5.1425},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecology},
	month = may,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1425--1425},
}

@article{phillips_maximum_2006,
	title = {Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions},
	volume = {190},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {03043800},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438000500267X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	author = {Phillips, Steven J. and Anderson, Robert P. and Schapire, Robert E.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {231--259},
}

@article{pulliam_relationship_2000,
	title = {On the relationship between niche and distribution},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1461-023X, 1461-0248},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00143.x},
	doi = {10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00143.x},
	abstract = {Applications of Hutchinson’s
              n
              ‐dimensional niche concept are often focused on the role of interspecific competition in shaping species distribution patterns. In this paper, I discuss a variety of factors, in addition to competition, that influence the observed relationship between species distribution and the availability of suitable habitat. In particular, I show that Hutchinson’s niche concept can be modified to incorporate the influences of niche width, habitat availability and dispersal, as well as interspecific competition
              per se
              . I introduce a simulation model called NICHE that embodies many of Hutchinson’s original niche concepts and use this model to predict patterns of species distribution. The model may help to clarify how dispersal, niche size and competition interact, and under what conditions species might be common in unsuitable habitat or absent from suitable habitat. A brief review of the pertinent literature suggests that species are often absent from suitable habitat and present in unsuitable habitat, in ways predicted by theory. However, most tests of niche theory are hampered by inadequate consideration of what does and does not constitute suitable habitat. More conclusive evidence for these predictions will require rigorous determination of habitat suitability under field conditions. I suggest that to do this, ecologists must measure habitat specific demography and quantify how demographic parameters vary in response to temporal and spatial variation in measurable niche dimensions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	author = {Pulliam, H.R.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2000},
	pages = {349--361},
}

@article{smith_modelling_2022,
	title = {Modelling habitat suitability for a potential flagship species, the hooded capuchin, of the {Paraguayan} {Upper} {Paraná} {Atlantic} {Forest}},
	volume = {3},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {2688-8319, 2688-8319},
	url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2688-8319.12146},
	doi = {10.1002/2688-8319.12146},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              
                
                  
                    The hooded capuchin (
                    Sapajus cay
                    ) is an adaptable, generalist primate species found throughout eastern Paraguay with preferences for the Paraguayan Upper Paraná Atlantic Forest (BAAPA). BAAPA is one of the world's most critically endangered terrestrial habitats with more than 90\% of its original cover lost to industrial agriculture. Given its charismatic characteristics, the capuchin species is a candidate flagship species for this ecoregion; however, its habitat preferences in BAAPA degraded fragments are unknown.
                  
                
                
                  We develop a species distribution model using MAXENT to determine the remotely sensed microhabitat features associated with habitat suitability in forests that had experienced different levels of degradation. The model was fitted to presence‐only observations at two sites, Rancho Laguna Blanca and Nueva Gambach, to determine how hooded capuchin distribution is associated with remotely sensed habitat features in BAAPA fragments.
                
                
                  Wetness (mean and standard deviation), a measure of soil moisture and canopy closure, was found to be the most important driver at both sites. The capuchins showed a preference for more mature forest, bamboo dominated forest and flooded forest (that has experienced little selective logging in the past).
                
                
                  The capuchin was a forest obligate species and avoided crop fields. The monkeys were less likely to be found in degraded areas, even though they were still forested. As Paraguayan deforestation involves the creation of large crop fields separating BAAPA fragments, the probability that the hooded capuchin can move between those fragments is low.
                
                
                  The hooded capuchin is a candidate flagship species for an agroforestry reforestation programme to reconnect BAAPA fragments. We propose that combining native tree corridors with shade grown yerba mate and slash pine plantations would create habitat for the capuchin and other wildlife while helping to alleviate poverty in the area and the pressure that this causes on the forests’ natural resources.
                
              
            
          , 
            Resumen
            
              
                
                  
                    El mono capuchino (
                    Sapajus cay
                    ) es un primate adaptable y generalista que se distribuye en la región Oriental de Paraguay con preferencia para la zona del Bosque Atlántico de Alto Paraná (BAAPA). Globalmente el BAAPA es uno de los ambiente terrestres más amenazados y más que 90\% de su cobertura original ha sido remplazado por agricultura industrial. Siendo una especies carismática el mono capuchino es un buen candidato como especies bandera para esta ecorregión. No obstante sus preferencias de hábitat en fragmentos degradado siguen siendo desconocido.
                  
                
                
                  Desarrollamos un modelo de la distribución de la especies usando MAXENT para determinar las características de micro‐hábitat detectadas remotamente asociadas con la idoneidad del hábitat en bosques que habían experimentado diferentes niveles de degradación.
                
                
                  Se encontró que “Wetness” (media y desviación estándar), una medida de la humedad del suelo y el cierre del dosel, es el factor más importante en ambos sitios. Los capuchinos mostraron una preferencia por bosques más maduros, bosques dominados por bambú y bosques inundados (que han experimentado poca tala selectiva en el pasado).
                
                
                  El capuchino es una especies obligado al bosque y evito campos agrícolas. Era menos probable encontrar los monos en áreas degradas a pesar de la presencias de cobertura boscosa. Dado que el patrón de deforestación en Paraguay resulta en la formación de campos extensivos separando fragmentos del BAAPA, la probabilidad de que los monos puedan circular entre los fragmentos es casi nula.
                
                
                  El mono capuchino es un candidato para especie bandera en un programa de reforestación agroforestal para reconectar fragmentos de bosque. Proponemos que una combinación de corredores de arboles nativos junto con plantaciones de yerba mate bajo sombra y pinos podría crear hábitat para el capuchino y otro vida silvestre mientras que ayudaría aliviar la pobreza en la zona y la presión que implica sobre los recursos naturales del bosque.
                
              
            
          , 
            Ñemombyky
            
              
                
                  
                    Pe ka'i (
                    Sapajus cay)
                    ha'e petei ka'i oiko kuaava opaicha ha'e oiko teta vore paragaui herava región Oriental opreferiva oiko ka'aguy yvaterehe. Umi ka'aguy ha'e tekoha opapotaitemava ojeitypa 90\% (porundypa) oivakue ka'aguy eñembyai eñeñoty hagua tembi'ura umi tuicha omba'apova kuera. Pe mono ka'i ningo ha'e mymba ejehaihu tereiva upevare ha'e ipora jaipuru pe mymba poyvi rapo pe iokohape. Upeicha avei pe iokoha hikuai pe ka'aguy michime mavaveva ndoikuaaporai mba'eve gueterei ikatupa oikove hikaui pepe.
                  
                
                
                  Rojapo petei techaucara umi mymba oikohape roiporu MAXENT roikuaa hagua mba'epa oiko hina pe hoga kuerahe tera mba'eichaitemapa oñembyai ha avei umi ka'ipa ioko kuaata ka'aguy michimime o tera oñemyai vaykuepe.
                
                
                  Ojetopa pe Wetness (mbytetepe) petei medida pe yvy he'ohape yvyapere ha eñemportanteveva mokoive hendape. Umi ka'i ohechuka opreferiha pe ka'aguy tuja, ha pe ka'aguy oihape heta takuara y he'ohape, ha avei ndojeityihape ka'aguy.
                
                
                  Pe ka'i ha'e petei mymba oikoteveva pe ka'aguyrehe ndaha'eiva ñemitaha. Hasyve japota hagua umi ka'i umi ka'aguy eñembyai haguepe, peteicha oihape ha'aguy ijere. Ha avei paraguaipe arandu ohechuka ojeitypaha umi ka'aguy pokukue ha peicha oheja mombyrypa ojuehegui umi ka'aguy ha upevare hasy jatopa hagua umi ka'i upepe.
                
                
                  Pe ka'i ha'e petei mymba poyvi, petei tembiaporape eñeñoty hagua yvyra ha'eva ñande mba'e ikatu haguaicha ujupy jey umi ka'aguiy. Oñeñotyramo umi yvyra heñoiva ko'ape ha vai ka'andive yvyraguype, peicha avei pino ndaha'eiva apegua yvyra, peicharo ukatuta jajapo ka'i kuerape hogara jey, ha avei mayma mymba oikova pepe, peicha avei ñaypytyvota umi yvypora oikova upe ijerere ikatu haguaicha oiko porave hikuai ha avei oñangareko porave hagua umi ka'aguy kuera rehe.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecological Solutions and Evidence},
	author = {Smith, Rebecca L. and Lusseau, David},
	month = jul,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {e12146},
}

@article{soberon_niches_2009,
	title = {Niches and distributional areas: {Concepts}, methods, and assumptions},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	shorttitle = {Niches and distributional areas},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.0901637106},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.0901637106},
	abstract = {Estimating actual and potential areas of distribution of species via ecological niche modeling has become a very active field of research, yet important conceptual issues in this field remain confused. We argue that conceptual clarity is enhanced by adopting restricted definitions of “niche” that enable operational definitions of basic concepts like fundamental, potential, and realized niches and potential and actual distributional areas. We apply these definitions to the question of niche conservatism, addressing what it is that is conserved and showing with a quantitative example how niche change can be measured. In this example, we display the extremely irregular structure of niche space, arguing that it is an important factor in understanding niche evolution. Many cases of apparently successful models of distributions ignore biotic factors: we suggest explanations to account for this paradox. Finally, relating the probability of observing a species to ecological factors, we address the issue of what objects are actually calculated by different niche modeling algorithms and stress the fact that methods that use only presence data calculate very different quantities than methods that use absence data. We conclude that the results of niche modeling exercises can be interpreted much better if the ecological and mathematical assumptions of the modeling process are made explicit.},
	language = {en},
	number = {supplement\_2},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Soberón, Jorge and Nakamura, Miguel},
	month = nov,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {19644--19650},
}

@article{vasiliu_influence_2008,
	title = {Influence of different phosphorus precursors on the electrical properties of the {SiO} $_{\textrm{2}}$ ‐{P} $_{\textrm{2}}$ {O} $_{\textrm{5}}$ films obtained by sol‐gel},
	volume = {5},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {1862-6351, 1610-1642},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pssc.200778935},
	doi = {10.1002/pssc.200778935},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              This work aims at establishing the influence of different phosphor‐precursors on the electrical properties of 90\%SiO
              2
              ‐10\%P
              2
              O
              5
              (\%mol) thin films prepared by sol‐gel method from triethylphosphate, triethylphosphite and phosphoric acid precursors. Glass and respectively ITO‐coated glass were used as substrates. The films were annealed at 200 °C and respectively 500 °C. For all selected precursors the results show that the conduction in the phosphate glass films decreases with increasing annealing temperature, giving thus evidence of a reduced release‐ and transfer‐activity of protons within the films. The activation energy of the conduction process takes values in the range 0.033‐0.04 eV. The correlation between the electrical properties and optical and structural data is also discussed. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH \& Co. KGaA, Weinheim)},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {physica status solidi c},
	author = {Vasiliu, Cristina and Vancea, Cosmin and Latia, Adina and Anastasescu, Mihai and Todan, Ligia and Predoana, Luminita and Zaharescu, Maria and Pavelescu, Gabriela and Grigorescu, Cristiana},
	month = aug,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {3392--3396},
}

@article{thuiller_biomod_2009,
	title = {{BIOMOD} – a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0906-7590, 1600-0587},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x},
	abstract = {BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species‐environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions with predictor variables. BIOMOD is implemented in R and is a freeware, open source, package.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecography},
	author = {Thuiller, Wilfried and Lafourcade, Bruno and Engler, Robin and Araújo, Miguel B.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {369--373},
}

@article{villero_integrating_2017,
	title = {Integrating species distribution modelling into decision-making to inform conservation actions},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {0960-3115, 1572-9710},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10531-016-1243-2},
	doi = {10.1007/s10531-016-1243-2},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Biodiversity and Conservation},
	author = {Villero, Dani and Pla, Magda and Camps, David and Ruiz-Olmo, Jordi and Brotons, Lluís},
	month = feb,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {251--271},
}

@incollection{wu_cart:_2009,
	edition = {0},
	title = {{CART}: {Classification} and {Regression} {Trees}},
	isbn = {9780429138423},
	shorttitle = {{CART}},
	url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781420089653/chapters/10.1201/9781420089653-17},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	booktitle = {The {Top} {Ten} {Algorithms} in {Data} {Mining}},
	publisher = {Chapman and Hall/CRC},
	editor = {Wu, Xindong and Kumar, Vipin},
	month = apr,
	year = {2009},
	doi = {10.1201/9781420089653-17},
	pages = {193--216},
}

@article{wright_ranger_2017,
	title = {\textbf{ranger} : {A} {Fast} {Implementation} of {Random} {Forests} for {High} {Dimensional} {Data} in \textit{{C}++} and \textit{{R}}},
	volume = {77},
	issn = {1548-7660},
	shorttitle = {\textbf{ranger}},
	url = {http://www.jstatsoft.org/v77/i01/},
	doi = {10.18637/jss.v077.i01},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Wright, Marvin N. and Ziegler, Andreas},
	year = {2017},
}

@article{fildes_journal_1993,
	title = {Journal of the {Royal} {Statistical} {Society} ({B})},
	volume = {9},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {01692070},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0169207093900885},
	doi = {10.1016/0169-2070(93)90088-5},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
	author = {Fildes, Robert},
	month = dec,
	year = {1993},
	pages = {586--587},
}

@article{naimi_where_2014,
	title = {Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modelling?},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {0906-7590, 1600-0587},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00205.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00205.x},
	abstract = {Species data held in museum and herbaria, survey data and opportunistically observed data are a substantial information resource. A key challenge in using these data is the uncertainty about where an observation is located. This is important when the data are used for species distribution modelling (SDM), because the coordinates are used to extract the environmental variables and thus, positional error may lead to inaccurate estimation of the species–environment relationship. The magnitude of this effect is related to the level of spatial autocorrelation in the environmental variables. Using local spatial association can be relevant because it can lead to the identification of the specific occurrence records that cause the largest drop in SDM accuracy. Therefore, in this study, we tested whether the SDM predictions are more affected by positional uncertainty originating from locations that have lower local spatial association in their predictors. We performed this experiment for Spain and the Netherlands, using simulated datasets derived from well known species distribution models (SDMs). We used the K statistic to quantify the local spatial association in the predictors at each species occurrence location. A probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulations was employed to introduce the error in the species locations. The results revealed that positional uncertainty in species occurrence data at locations with low local spatial association in predictors reduced the prediction accuracy of the SDMs. We propose that local spatial association is a way to identify the species occurrence records that require treatment for positional uncertainty. We also developed and present a tool in the R environment to target observations that are likely to create error in the output from SDMs as a result of positional uncertainty.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Ecography},
	author = {Naimi, Babak and Hamm, Nicholas A. S. and Groen, Thomas A. and Skidmore, Andrew K. and Toxopeus, Albertus G.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {191--203},
}

@article{naimi_potential_2022,
	title = {Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land‐cover change},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {1354-1013, 1365-2486},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16310},
	doi = {10.1111/gcb.16310},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land‐cover change on their potential end‐of‐century distributions. We found that climate‐induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is ‘tropicalizing.’ Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross‐continental invasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low‐latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land‐cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing chances of alien species successfully invading non‐native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non‐analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences.},
	language = {en},
	number = {19},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Global Change Biology},
	author = {Naimi, Babak and Capinha, César and Ribeiro, Joana and Rahbek, Carsten and Strubbe, Diederik and Reino, Luís and Araújo, Miguel B.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {5654--5666},
}

@article{naimi_elsa_2019,
	title = {{ELSA}: {Entropy}-based local indicator of spatial association},
	volume = {29},
	issn = {22116753},
	shorttitle = {{ELSA}},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2211675318300228},
	doi = {10.1016/j.spasta.2018.10.001},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Spatial Statistics},
	author = {Naimi, Babak and Hamm, Nicholas A.S. and Groen, Thomas A. and Skidmore, Andrew K. and Toxopeus, Albertus G. and Alibakhshi, Sara},
	month = mar,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {66--88},
}

@article{naimi_spatial_2011,
	title = {Spatial autocorrelation in predictors reduces the impact of positional uncertainty in occurrence data on species distribution modelling: {Spatial} autocorrelation and positional uncertainty},
	volume = {38},
	copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1},
	issn = {03050270},
	shorttitle = {Spatial autocorrelation in predictors reduces the impact of positional uncertainty in occurrence data on species distribution modelling},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02523.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02523.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2024-06-27},
	journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
	author = {Naimi, Babak and Skidmore, Andrew K. and Groen, Thomas A. and Hamm, Nicholas A. S.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {1497--1509},
}

@article{Dornelas2023,
  title={Looking back on biodiversity change: Lessons for the road ahead},
  author={Dornelas, M. and Chase, J.M. and Gotelli, N.J. and Magurran, A.E. and McGill, B.J. and Antão, L.H. and Blowes, S.A. and Daskalova, G.N. and Leung, B. and others},
  journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
  year={2023},
  doi={10.1098/rstb.2022.0199}
}

@book{Kolbert2014,
  title={The sixth extinction: An unnatural history},
  author={Kolbert, E.},
  year={2014},
  doi={10.1038/ngeo1895}
}

@article{Hughes2023,
  title={The Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework: How did we get here, and where do we go next?},
  author={Hughes, A.C.},
  journal={Integrative Conservation},
  volume={2},
  year={2023},
  doi={10.1002/inc3.16}
}

@article{taheri2024climetrics,
  title={climetrics: an R package to quantify multiple dimensions of climate change},
  author={Taheri, Shirin and Naimi, Babak and Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B},
  journal={Ecography},
  volume={2024},
  number={8},
  pages={e07176},
  year={2024},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{pecl2017biodiversity,
  title={Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being},
  author={Pecl, Gretta T and Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B and Bell, Johann D and Blanchard, Julia and Bonebrake, Timothy C and Chen, I-Ching and Clark, Timothy D and Colwell, Robert K and Danielsen, Finn and Eveng{\aa}rd, Birgitta and others},
  journal={Science},
  volume={355},
  number={6332},
  pages={eaai9214},
  year={2017},
  publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science}
}

@article{whittaker2005conservation,
  title={Conservation biogeography: assessment and prospect},
  author={Whittaker, Robert J and Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B and Jepson, Paul and Ladle, Richard J and Watson, James EM and Willis, Katherine J},
  journal={Diversity and distributions},
  volume={11},
  number={1},
  pages={3--23},
  year={2005},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{araujo2012uses,
  title={Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling},
  author={Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B and Peterson, A Townsend},
  journal={Ecology},
  volume={93},
  number={7},
  pages={1527--1539},
  year={2012},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{ebrahimi2022assessing,
  title={Assessing the climate change effects on the distribution pattern of the Azerbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus)},
  author={Ebrahimi, Elham and Ranjbaran, Yasaman and Sayahnia, Romina and Ahmadzadeh, Faraham},
  journal={Ecological Complexity},
  volume={50},
  pages={100997},
  year={2022},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}

@article{araujo2000selecting,
  title={Selecting areas for species persistence using occurrence data},
  author={Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B and Williams, Paul H},
  journal={Biological conservation},
  volume={96},
  number={3},
  pages={331--345},
  year={2000},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}

@article{zellmer2019predicting,
  title={Predicting optimal sites for ecosystem restoration using stacked-species distribution modeling},
  author={Zellmer, Amanda J and Claisse, Jeremy T and Williams, Chelsea M and Schwab, Stuart and Pondella, Daniel J},
  journal={Frontiers in Marine Science},
  volume={6},
  pages={3},
  year={2019},
  publisher={Frontiers Media SA}
}

@article{araujo2024expanding,
  title={Expanding European protected areas through rewilding},
  author={Ara{\'u}jo, Miguel B and Alagador, Diogo},
  journal={Current Biology},
  volume={34},
  number={17},
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