Flood risk assessment of linear structures: A Gaussian Process framework.

This repository contains a complete set of scripts and notebooks applied to estimate the Expected Annual Damage (EAD) to roads asociated with river floods (in Portugal). The framework may be adapted to other regions and other types of hazards, if represented by some hazard intensity parameters associated with a damage function. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the EAD, the damage is modeled as a spatial random field. The spatial correlation of this random field is decisive to the uncertainty of the EAD. To this end, Gaussian Processes are used to embed the uncertainty associated with the flood damage function with a spatial correlation.

The methodology is described in the article Uncertainty in flood risk assessment of linear structures: Why correlation matters.

Data

All the data used for the analysis is freely available. Where to find it, and how to download it is described below.

Damage Assessment

The following instructions may be used to rerun the analysis from Uncertainty in flood risk assessment of linear structures: Why correlation matters. The assessment is implemented in a series of steps.

Make sure you have a working python environment. See the below notes. Select a folder for storing all the data associated with the analysis. bash export DATADIR=/PATH/TO/FOLDER

1. Load the floodmaps.

To download and rasterize the floodmaps for Portugal use the script load_floodmaps.py. I.e., bash python load_floodmaps.py The script is written with the purpose of loading a set of floodmaps for portugal from sniamb. Output folder is specified as a subfolder, named floodmaps of the DATADIR. Before running the script ensure that you have GDAL available from the commandline. The script calls gdal_rasterize to rasterize and gdal_merge to merge the floodmaps into a single multiband raster feature.tif.

2. Filter elements from OSM and assign floodmap features to road segments.

The script assign_raster_to_osm_elements.py applies osmium to load elements from Open Street Map. For each element raster values are assigned as features, named according to band description in the raster file. The raster is not loaded into memory. This makes the proceedure a bit slower, but enables the application of large rasters. First download the OSM extracts for the selected region from geofabrik bash [DATADIR]$ wget https://download.geofabrik.de/europe/portugal-latest.osm.pbf Next, bash $ python assign_raster_to_osm_elements.py $DATADIR/floodmaps/merged_floodmaps/features.tif $DATADIR/portugal-latest.osm.pbf assigned.json The selection of elements is hardcoded, but may easily changed. (As an improvement one may specify a filter in a json-file using similar code as the one found in the script filtering.py)

3. Generate random fields for damage sampling.

It is computationally expensive to generate random fields. To make sure that we don't need to sample values on entire map, but only where values are needed, the first script generates a mask. bash $ python create_intersect.py $DATADIR/assigned.json [epsg_NR] $DATADIR/coords.csv $DATADIR/intersects.tif [xres] [yres] - assigned.json is the geojson generated in step 2 - epsg_NR is the EPSG code of the reference system assigned to intersect.tif. For Portugal we apply 27429. - coords.csv Filename/path to generated CSV listing all the points associated with each segment in assigned.json. For each point it records open street map id (id), position of the point in the segment (coo_nr), position (x, y) and position in raster (row, col). - intersect.tif Filename/path of the generated mask. - xres yres is the spatial resolution of the generated mask.

The second script generates random fields with values at the points specified by mask. The spatial field is a Gaussian Process with mean zero and the covariance kernel $$ k(x,y) = \exp\left(\frac{|x-y|}{\ell}\right) $$ where $\ell$ is known as the decorrelation length and measured in meter. To generate the random fields:

bash $ python gaussian-random-field.py $DATADIR/intersects.tif $DATADIR/random-fields/l-[l]/random_field.tif --add_mask N l - intersect.tif is the raster mask generated in previous step. Specifies which the part pf the raster for which to generate the field. Tested with Type=Byte. - random_field.tif is the generated random field. A number is appended before .tif so as to obtain random_field-1.tif. - --add_mask writes mask to each random field. This is particularily useful to display the fields in qgis. - N is the number of fields to be written. Each sample is a simple matrix multiplication, its the constuction of the matrix that takes time. - l is the decorrolation length applied in the kernel.

To merge all the random fields into a .vrt file, apply bash [DATADIR/random-fields/l-[l]]$ gdalbuildvrt -separate -o random_fields.vrt random_field-*.tif

4. Assigning region codes.

If you want to aggregate values on a regional level, you will need to assign a region id to the features. First download region codes, and store them under [DATADIR]/nuts. These are shapefiles. Generating the raster from a shapefile may be done using gdal_rasterize, and filtering the the shapefile to include the regions of interest may be performed applying filtering.py. That is, ```bash

filter region and add counter id.

python filter.py -c id -f nutsfilter.json $DATADIR/nuts/NUTSRG03M20214326.shp $DATADIR/nuts/portugalnuts.shp

convert coordinates.

ogr2ogr -tsrs EPSG:27429 $DATADIR/nuts/portugalnuts27429.shp $DATADIR/nuts/portugal_nuts.shp

write regions to raster. First get extent of intersect

gdalinfo $DATADIR/intersects.tif -json | jq .cornerCoordinates gdalrasterize -a id -tr 100 100 -te 464852 4096019 630794 4632077 $DATADIR/nuts/portugalnuts27429.shp $DATADIR/nuts/portugalnuts.tif `` Finally, having the region codes in raster format, apply the scriptassignfieldfromraster.pye.g., bash python assign_field_from_raster.py -c $DATADIR/assigned.json $DATADIR/nuts/portugal_nuts.tif $DATADIR/region-assigned.json region Note: As an alternative approach to assigning region to each element in theassigned.jsonone may filter the geopandas dataframe in the notebookestimate-damage.ipynb` instead. This is not implemented, but probably a simpler and more flexible approach.

5. Assign damage to elements.

The rest of the analysis is carried out in jupyter notebooks. The reason is that there are many choices along the way, and the notebooks serves as documentation on the analysis. Further, the investigation of results are easily augmented in this setting. The first part is concerned with the fitting of a damage function. This is done in damage-function.ipynb. Then, the final analysis is done in the notebook estimate-damage.ipynb.

Notes on working environment.

The python version is set in .python-version as used by pyenv. Use the requirements.txt to create a local environment. Path to the environment can be set in venv.sh (used to activate the environment python shell).

Dependencies.

Make sure you have GDAL installed. To install python bindings for gdal: bash sudo apt-get install libgdal-dev Next, bash export CPLUS_INCLUDE_PATH=/usr/include/gdal export C_INCLUDE_PATH=/usr/include/gdal and then bash pip install GDAL==version where version can be found by gdal-config --version. Here is a (possibly incomplete) collection of libraries I had to install:

bash libsuitesparse-dev build-essential cmake libboost-dev libexpat1-dev zlib1g-dev libbz2-dev

Funding

The development of the framework has received funding from the European Community’s H2020 Program MG-7-1-2017, Resilience to extreme (natural and human-made) events, under Grant Agreement number: 769255—"GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY)". The support is gratefully acknowledged.

Further development.

The current framework does not estimate uncertainty with respect to the flood intensity parameters. The framework should be adapted to also consider uncertainty associated with flood maps.

Some straight OSM road segments have large distances between their spatial coordinates. A refinment step to obtain an upper bound on distance beetween segment coordinates may be implemented as part of the assign_raster_to_osm_elements.py script.